Sweat rewards; We've got the hots for you: Hot business, hot opportunities, hot markets, hot trends. Grab a cold drink, because 2002 is gonna be a scorcher

Entrepreneur, Dec, 2001 by Amanda C. Kooser, Geoff Williams

After the ups and downs of 2001, do we want to even attempt to predict what'll be hot in 2002? Of course we do. We asked the questions, tracked the numbers, greased our elbows ... and what we came up with are so many hot trends, we couldn't fit them all in this, our annual collection of predictions for the coming year. (You'll have to flip back to page 24 to completely exhaust our ideas for '02.) Listen to us, listen to the experts or listen to the entrepreneurs who've done it--but in the end, these trends will speak for themselves.

ONLINE LEARNING

You can teach an old concept new tricks. While many online companies appear pale under the economic spotlight, e-learning businesses are looking rosy. Employee training, Internet college courses and classes catering to the fresh legions of home-schoolers are booming areas. IDC expects the corporate e-learning market alone to top $18 billion by 2005, up from $2.3 billion in 2000.

Stephan Thieringer, 35-year-old CEO and co-founder of Danvers, Massachusetts, business training company GTF Systems, is familiar with what it takes to successfully launch a virtual education company. "The market is huge," says Thieringer. "The mistake a lot of companies make is they get very broad-ranged. We are very specialized." GTF Systems' focus on state-and federal-mandated compliance training and human resources solutions keeps it plenty busy in its niche market.

Thieringer explains one of the key factors poised to make 2002 a good year for e-learning entrepreneurs: "The community has come to the point where distance learning isn't necessarily considered an inferior education." The arrival of accredited online-only universities like Capella University (www.capellauniversity.edu) of Minneapolis is proof positive of this growing trend. Look for business opportunities not only in providing courses and continuing education programs, but also in servicing the peripheral supply and material needs of distance learners.

While there is a high awareness of online college-level classes, there are also interesting e-learning developments a little closer to home. According to the National Home Education Research Institute, 1.3 million to 1.7 million children were home-schooled in 1999 and 2000. No exact figures are available for 2001, but the home-schooling movement has gained significant steam during the past few years, making K-12 education a hot area for entrepreneurs. Fronted by William J. Bennett, former Secretary of Education under former President Reagan, K12 (www.k12.com) in McLean, Virginia, has made a high-profile entry into this area by offering curricula and supplies geared toward the elementary market. But there is still plenty of room on the chalkboard for small companies to make their mark.

Thieringer sees a wide landscape for e-learning start-ups, but he emphasizes that the basics of customer service and specialization are required for success. "It's about content," he says. "It's about the scalability of the product. It's about the bandwidth requirements. It's about ease of use." Virtual learning entrepreneurs prepared to balance the knowledge with the technology will move to the head of the class in 2002.

Amanda C. Kooser

KIOSKS

Dolls, T-shirts, cell-phone deals, weight-loss plans, calendars, toy helicopters that whirl into the sky, rings, watches, bracelets, baseball caps and bonsai trees. Kiosks sell it all. And you could be earning it all. Also known as booths or shopping carts, kiosks located in shopping malls or outdoor shopping districts provide a potential gold mine for both established entrepreneurs and up-and-corners trying to gain a retail foothold.

Specialty retail, including kiosks and temporary inline stores, is a $10 billion business, according to Patricia Norms, publisher of trade magazine Specialty Retail Report. "It's definitely still on the upswing," says Norms. "A lot of malls are clearing out planters and benches and making room for kiosk operators, recognizing the real benefits to consumers and to their own bottom line."

"It's a very strong business," concurs Kathleen Ruesche, director of specialty leasing and sales at the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota. A single kiosk can bring in as much as $200,000 annually, and many kiosk owners own more than one.

During the off-season, a kiosk entrepreneur might pay $500 to $2,500 to lease space; some malls also collect a percentage of sales. Prices between October and January in Mall of America-size malls could run as high as $10,000 a month. Most operators think the benefits outweigh these costs. One perk: You don't have to keep your store open year-round--you can reap profits during busy months and shut down during slow ones. Kiosks also offer great exposure. "People are likely to practically trip over your store," says Ruesche.

But one warning: Don't create an atmosphere that encourages loitering and looky-loos. The highest-performing kiosk retailers, says Ruesche, are those who provide "impulse buys."

Geoff Williams

ONLINE GAMES