Future tech

Entrepreneur, May, 1999 by G. David Doran

Computers that know who you are? What about ones that read your mind? In the technology of the future, virtually anything's possible. Anything.

Over the past 20 years, a series of remarkable innovations in computing, telecommunications and other high-tech fields have had a great impact on the way we live, work and play. Technology has given us tools to organize our lives and run our businesses more efficiently. It single-handedly enabled round-the-clock banking, face-to-face meetings with people on the other side of the planet, stores without doors, and research without the obligatory trip to the library. Technology has also brought with it unprecedented prosperity. Twenty years ago, many felt the economic supremacy of the United States was on the wane; today, technology is the driving force behind a healthy, robust economy that is the envy of the world. And the best is yet to come.

Assuming that the Y2K bug and its attendant headaches don't return us to the early Industrial Age, the next 10 years promise to be an exciting time full of astounding discoveries, miraculous devices and continued economic expansion. While no one knows what the world of 2009 will look like, the technologies that will mold that world are taking shape right now in laboratories, high-tech research centers, and basements across the country.

THANK YOU. MR. CHIPS

In 1965, Intel Corp. co-founder Gordon Moore was preparing to give a speech about the growth in microprocessor performance when he made an interesting observation: Each new chip was roughly twice as fast as its predecessor - meaning computing power would rise exponentially over a relatively brief period of time. While the pace of advancement has slowed in recent years to a doubling once every 18 months, as compared to the doubling rate in 1965 of once every year, the next five to 10 years will see microprocessor speeds increase by huge increments, says Bob Ferrar, marketing operations manager for Intel's embedded microcomputer division. "In a few years, we'll certainly see chips in the gigahertz [1000 MHz] range at affordable prices," Ferrar predicts.

While the typical small-business computer user may wonder why he or she would need a PC that runs twice as fast as the new 500 MHz Pentium III chip, Ferrar believes gigahertz chips will truly enhance the user's computing experience. "They will really change what you can do within computing," says Ferrar. "They'll allow things like real-time voice and video capability. Voice recognition will also see major improvements" Improved voice recognition will make possible extremely small devices that eschew display screens, mice and keyboards in favor of an interface that relies solely on voice recognition and synthesis (meaning the computer can talk back) for interaction with the user.

Within a few years of their release, Ferrar predicts, gigahertz chips will trickle down into non-PC applications. Here they'll take the form of "embedded" chip technology in hand-held Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs), cellular phones and other consumer electronic devices, giving these products more horsepower as well as a vastly improved ability to handle graphics and audio applications.

THE UBIQUITOUS PC

Given the plunge in PC prices in recent months, by 2009, PCs will be nearly as affordable and popular as TV sets are today. The major stumbling block to this level of saturation is, of course, usability. What good is owning a powerful computer that's too complicated to use? Roy Want, a researcher with Xerox, is making it his mission to improve the relationship between man and machine. Want is experimenting with Invisible Interfaces, intuitive mechanisms that go way beyond the mice and keyboards that currently control PCs. "We're moving from very rigid, stationary machines to ones that are much more mobile and numerous," says Want. "There will be many computers distributed throughout your work environment, and as a result, you are more likely to have interaction on a physical basis with your computer as well as with the traditional keyboard and mouse. We have interfaces where you can tilt and press the housing of your computer, and it gives you the natural effects [of motion]." In one experiment, Want used a Palm Pilot combined with a tilt sensor to make a Rolodex-type product that scrolls through long lists when users tilt the machine - meaning users don't need the mouse or the arrow key. Other devices incorporating this unique interface are on the drawing board.

Computers of the future will also be much more aware of users' needs, says Want. Today, when you boot up your PC, it presents you with the same interface it presents your employees, spouse, kids or anyone else who uses your computer. "Tagging" technologies, in the form of a special badge worn by the user, will change all that. Your PC will send out radio signals that interrogate the badge, which will in turn tell the computer who you are, what you want to see on your desktop, what programs you want to work with, and what type of security clearance you have for manipulating the core system. Your PC will also know when you've stepped away from the screen and will fend off prying eyes until you return.