Trend spotting: futurist reveals 16 forces shaping America - interview with Faith Popcorn - Interview

Entrepreneur, Dec, 1996 by Robert McGarvey

Random and chaotic may be how the vast consumer marketplace looks to most of us, but when futurist Faith Popcorn scans the globe, she sees major trends that propel many consumer buying decisions - from "cocooning" (where Americans have turned into home-bodies) through "pleasure revenge" and "small indulgences" (where we puff cigars between nibbles of Godiva chocolates). Not only does Popcorn describe today's trends, but she also pinpoints the forces shaping tomorrow's marketplace. And a stream of big businesses contract with her marketing consulting firm Brain-Reserve to get this scoop.

Is Popcorn's picture of tomorrow on the mark? "I haven't been wrong about a trend yet," she claims. And she predicts her new book Clicking (HarperCollins) will help even more entrepreneurs start and grow their businesses. Read on for her tips on how to get rich betting on tomorrow.

Entrepreneur: Why do you say clicking is crucial for entrepreneurs?

Faith Popcorn: Clicking is about changing yourself and your business to fit the trends. It's about being in sync with what's coming tomorrow. You click when you're in the right place, at the right time, doing the right things.

Clicking is an acronym. "C" stands for courage. "L" is for letting go - maybe you're not happy doing what you do and you need to let it go. "I" is for insight, seeing what you want to be. "C" is for commitment to change. And "K" is for know-how - getting the skills you need to make things happen. When you click, you see the future dearly and are ready to seize opportunities.

As an entrepreneur, when you understand the future, you'll make fewer mistakes. As a marketer, trend knowledge is invaluable. To be where the consumers are just before they get there, offering these consumers what they didn't know they wanted, spells success.

Entrepreneur: What's the difference between a fad and a trend?

Popcorn: Trends are big and broad. A fad is shorter in duration - a flash in the pan - and fewer people are involved. For instance: Punk hair colors and nose rings are fads. But trends are different - they are giant in terms of how many people they involve - and they last at least 10 years, sometimes longer. Cocooning is going into its 20th year, for example.

Do trends apply everywhere? The answer is a qualified "no." If a region or part of the world is under severe financial hardship and people have no money to buy what they would like, they can't be considered an active and viable part of the "trendscape," the consumer scene. Otherwise, we feel comfortable saying the trends we've spotlighted are not only national but global in scope.

Entrepreneur: Is the Internet a fad or a trend?

Popcorn: It's a trend. Just look at how it fits with trends like clanning (see "Top Picks" on page 148) and cocooning, and you see how big the Internet can be because people are looking for new ways to link together.

Trends help you interpret what's going on and whether it will last. When you look at the Internet in terms of it being a trend, you understand it will definitely continue to grow.

Entrepreneur: Aren't some of the trends contradictory?

Popcorn: That's human nature. How many people go out and jog for an hour, then go home and eat a pint of ice cream? That's fitness and fatness in the same person. Besides, in a nation of 266 million people, a trend can be gigantic but only involve 20 million people.

Entrepreneur: You say that a good way to cultivate business ideas is to question the obvious. Why is that?

Popcorn: Because the obvious often isn't so obvious. You may see something in front of you, but when you analyze it, you see it's really something else.

More broadly: What we' re trying to do in detailing the trends is to force you to think differently. Clicking is about breaking cliches, ripping apart refrigerator philosophy - comforting words to live by that don't hold true anymore.

Entrepreneur: A skeptic might challenge your accuracy on these predictions.

Popcorn: I haven't been wrong about a trend yet. At BrainReserve, we are systematic about how we come up with our predictions. We interview as many as 4,000 people a year, one on one, and we've done that for 22 years. We read 300 publications a month, plus the bestselling books. We monitor the top-rated television shows, movies and music. The art of all this is scanning today's culture for signs of the future. The signs are everywhere - you just have to open your eyes.

Entrepreneur: What industries are "clinging to old-think," as you put it - meaning they are out of touch with today's trends?

Popcorn: In Clicking, we analyze banking in terms of the current trends, and it is off-trend on all 16 [trends in the book]. No industry can keep insulting its clients forever without a rebellion. There are real opportunities for an on-trend bank of the future.

Another industry in trouble is the supermarket. People hate to shop there - they don't have time, and when they go, they can't find anything. Car dealerships also have tremendous problems - many customers think that when they go to buy a car, they just get abused. Some customers want to be able to get home delivery of new cars. Wouldn't you like a dealer who first asked you questions about your needs, then later brought cars to your home or office for you to test drive? All these industries - banking, supermarkets, car sales - offer opportunities for on-trend entrepreneurs who find new and better ways to give consumers what they want.