Trend spotting: futurist reveals 16 forces shaping America - interview with Faith Popcorn - Interview

Entrepreneur, Dec, 1996 by Robert McGarvey

Entrepreneur: What recommendations for marketing are you most proud of?

Popcorn: We did incredible work for MetLife [insurance], whom we helped identify an underserved women's market that represents a potential $1 billion in business.

We knew that the first financial services company to demonstrate loyalty to women entrepreneurs would be in a position to gain market share in a huge and growing market. So for MetLife, we created a way to sell insurance to entrepreneurs - especially female entrepreneurs - and at the same time provide them with help in their businesses.

We transformed the word "insurance" agent into "success" agent, and that agent, besides selling insurance to women, also helps them succeed in business by mentoring them in areas like bookkeeping, hiring employees and the like. And we found that when a woman entrepreneur is treated that way - in a friendly, interactive, considerate fashion - she will tell about 500 people.

Entrepreneur: Have there been suggestions you've made to clients that they didn't implement?

Popcorn: Many. My favorite product idea was for a microchip that could be put in a child's tooth and used to track him or her. We were working for a company involved in military electronics, and it had the capability to do this. We worked up a business plan, and it could have been very profitable, but the company was afraid that a maniac would start ripping kids' teeth out and that the company would look bad. They were more afraid of potential negative PR than they were interested in tackling the abduction issue.

Entrepreneur: Which of the 16 trends do you see as especially powerful right now?

Popcorn: Icon toppling - the idea that anything big and established will topple. This means difficulties for big business, government and the medical and legal professions. Alternative delivery systems will grow. This is a very big trend, and the alternatives - small businesses, alternative medicines - will do very well also.

Entrepreneur: What's your advice to entrepreneurs about how to use your book?

Popcorn: Put your ideas to the trend test. Using the trends as a screen can save you from false starts, misguided attempts or outright failures in whatever venture you have in mind. It's easy to do. If a business fits with at least four trends, being off-trend won't cause it to fail. But when fewer than four trends apply, you're picking up on a fad or reaching too small a market segment.

How do you know if an idea is on-trend? Write down all the trends vertically on the left-hand side of a piece of paper. Head other columns horizontally across the top of the page: Yes, No, Maybe, Possible Change. Take each trend in turn, and consider how well the business idea is supported by that trend. If the idea seems on-trend, look for ways to make it more so. If not, don't give up. Try to figure out what you would have to do to reshape the idea and make it trend-friendly.

Entrepreneur: Another click you talk about is the "heart click." What's that?

Popcorn: Here's a great for-instance: A hospital nurse noticed that when her patients went home, they often didn't have the energy to cook. So she created an after-care service to deliver hot meals. She did this because she really felt for these people, and that's what's essential in a heart click. It's when the idea tugs on your heart more than it involves your head and your economic analysis of the business plan. And sometimes heart clicks work very, very well.