Trend spotting: futurist reveals 16 forces shaping America - interview with Faith Popcorn - Interview

Entrepreneur, Dec, 1996 by Robert McGarvey

Entrepreneur: Does a small business need to jump on a trend in its early stage?

Popcorn: Often there are good reasons not to be first. Nathan Pritikin is a case in point. Thirty years ago, he was preaching the value of a low-cholesterol, high-carbohydrate diet, and he was mocked. Now much of what he said is taken as fact. If you're first, you will often have a hard time precisely because you are first.

An entrepreneur can come into a trend several years after it started and still do very well - if he or she has good ideas and executes them inventively. You don't want to get in too late, of course. But waiting until the second or third year of a trend can be smart. You'll see if it is in fact a trend or merely a fad. If you decide it's a trend, then look for creative ways to work within the trend.

Entrepreneur: Can a small business afford to bet on a clicking concept?

Popcorn: Absolutely - we are already getting letters from people who have read the book and clicked into businesses. There are lots of ways to succeed once you know the trends. Above all, the most important thing I hope to give entrepreneurs is the heart and courage they need to follow their ideas.

Top Picks

In Clicking, futurist Faith Popcorn identifies 16 trends-big, sweeping consumer movements that are driving the marketplace. When you study these driving forces, says Popcorn, you're sure to get plenty of ideas for business opportunities. Here, in no particular order, are her top trends:

1. Cocooning: People stay at home, building safe harbors that afford protection against the uncertain - even dangerous - outside world. The "country living" style of home furnishings is a case in point of products designed to tap directly into the cocooning trend.

2. Clanning: We're staying at home but still want to connect with other, like-minded souls. How? Internet chat rooms are one way we "clan" but still cocoon.

3. Fantasy adventure: The operative concept is "risk free," as we seek breaks from ruts through (safe) travel, new foods and possibly virtual reality.

4. Pleasure revenge: "This is 'Screw it, I'm wearing my mink coat,'" says Popcorn - nd more broadly, pleasure revenge means consumers are tired of the rules that restrain us and are enjoying forbidden pleasures. "Smoking is another pleasure revenge," says Popcorn.

5. Small indulgences: Even if we can't afford a Porsche, maybe we can afford a Porsche watch. Stressed-out consumers are rewarding themselves with countless little, affordable treats - from good cigars to Godiva chocolates.

6. Anchoring: Anchoring is the search for spiritual roots and meanings.

7. Egonomics: Rebelling against uniformity and sterility, we seek to stamp an "I" wherever we go as a quest for individuality becomes a major trend.

8. FemaleThink: A big shift away from traditional, goal-oriented models to "the more caring and sharing, familial ones," says Popcorn.

9. Mancipation: Popcorn calls it "a NewThink for men," and it means men will break out of strictly business ruts into more individual freedoms.