Healthcare 2020: The New Rules of Society - Industry Trend or Event

Health Management Technology, Sept, 1999 by Russell C. Coile, Jr., Brett E. Trusko

Thanks to technology, the American public of 2020 will have an unparalleled ability to take an active role in the management of its own health.

Every year, every decade, we are surprised by social or technological upheavals that appear suddenly, surprisingly. -- Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View

Sociological changes are generational. What will the next generation do to handle the fundamental changes in healthcare, family, wellness, age wave, and social programs? The values, expectations, philosophy, and world-view varies greatly between the Baby Boom and Gen-X generations. Seniors from the Great Depression era, who will be the oldest-old in the 21st century, will have few attitudes or skills in common with Cyberkids who are growing up in an information-rich environment.

The challenges of the next century--aging, sustaining global peace and prosperity, widening economic opportunity, integrating multiple cultures, and learning in an information-based society--will provide many of the drivers for changing social norms and the society of 2020.

Century of the Individual

The individual of the early 21st century will be just that--a social unit of one. Through technology changes in the new century, society will witness a move back to the farms, figuratively speaking. More jobs will be virtual and more individuals will be self- or semi-employed.

Human resources futurists David Jamieson and Julie O'Mara predict that many companies will adopt a flex management philosophy, with creation of more individualized policies, systems and management practices. The philosophy of flex management presumes that workers will be self-motivated and self-managed.

Companies are shifting from a traditional, paternalistic, corporate culture, that relies heavily on rules and close supervision, to an organizational style that is more autonomous, characterized by employee empowerment, commitment, and accountability.

Exurban Lifestyle Coming

Thanks to global, instantaneous telecommunications, many professionals today are choosing an exurban lifestyle, choosing to relocate to rural areas and beyond to seek the "better life" of country living and a cleaner, less polluted environment (emotionally, as well as environmentally). Fully employed stay-at-home parents, balancing childcare with their daily jobs and community responsibilities, will characterize the exurban lifestyle.

Studies indicate that by the turn of the century, 10 to 15 percent of the workforce will work in a non-traditional workplace--the home. The decentralization of employment has high potential for productivity and balanced work life. Non-traditional employers may find that telecommuting employees are doing the best work of their lives in a lower-stress, higher-productivity environment, since the exurban, telecommuter lifestyle has made age and race discrimination far less common.

Those who have moved away from the office, the commute, and the city, will experience and contribute to a revitalized sense of community. In the community of the 21st century, exurbans will demand continual learning through distance instruction, which may be provided by the current universities or new upstart virtual colleges. Independent study and work will require a move back to personal accountability that had in many ways been lost during the assembly-line mentality of the industrial age. This accountability extends not only to civic responsibilities, but entertainment and healthy lifestyles.

Personal Accountability for Lifestyle

The move to personal accountability in job, community, education, and family will also spread to healthcare as part of the broader human potential movement that encourages self-realization and self-actualization--dubbed "ego-nomics."

Society at the turn of the century has already begun to see healthier lifestyles. Healthclub membership will rise in the decades ahead, as legions of Baby Boomers return to the gym to renew and sustain their physical fitness. Bottled water is as prevalent in supermarkets as sodas. Organic food has graduated from the produce department--and organic baby food and breakfast cereals are appearing.

Smokers have essentially been banished from public spaces, removing smokers from office buildings and restaurants--exiled by nonsmoking families into their own backyards, since houses with "smoke smell" are difficult to market. The new century will witness a revival in the natural lifestyle, as much from peer pressure as the desire to improve longevity.

Expect "Patient Partnering"

The trend of healthy lifestyles, coupled with technology, will continue to gain momentum during the beginning of the new millennium, redefining the role of healthcare professionals and shaking the health industry to its foundations. Physicians who have traditionally been the healthcare experts and leaders will find satisfaction in "patient partnering."

Information available on the Internet and e-health will enable patients to become full participants in their healthcare, leading in turn to collaborative treatments and "homework" for the patient.