EXPORTERS REPORT LOWER EXPECTATIONS THROUGH MID-1996, ACCORDING TO DUN & BRADSTREET SURVEY

Business Wire, Oct 5, 1995

WILTON, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 6, 1995--Fewer U.S. companies expect their export levels to increase through mid-1996, according to The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation's annual Dun's 5,000 Export Survey.

The Dun's 5,000 Surveys on employment, exporting and other trend indicators are based on a sample of 5,000 U.S. firms, drawn from the D&B database of more than 10 million businesses nationwide, and are a statistically representative portrait of all U.S. firms by size and industry.

"Current trade relations between the U.S. and Japan and Mexico have not had too much of an impact on current exports, but the uncertainty of economic stability in Japan and Mexico has contributed to a reduction in U.S. exporters' expectations for the coming year," said Joseph W. Duncan, vice president and chief economist for The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation.

Overall, nearly 49 percent of the exporting firms surveyed in July 1995 expect higher export sales through June 1996, a decline of 12 percentage points from last year's survey. Some 44 percent of all exporters expect sales to remain the same, and only 8 percent expect a decline.

"The risks to U.S. exporters are highlighted by the economic conditions in countries such as Mexico and Japan, and are reflected in their increased pessimism toward future export activity levels," added Duncan. "Because much of our nation's economic growth is derived from sales abroad, the United States' ability to sustain export levels in the coming year will be an important factor in its economic growth."

Among all U.S. businesses that export, 62 percent said that their exports increased over the past year; 34 percent said their exports did not change; and 4 percent reported decreases in their export sales.

As expected, the larger the firm the more likely it is to export. Just under 30 percent of businesses with 10,000 or more employees said that they currently export, and 54 percent of the firms that size said they expect their exports to increase in the coming year. In contrast, only 10 percent of the U.S. businesses surveyed with fewer than 100 employees export goods. However, nearly half of these smaller exporters said they expect their exports to increase through mid-1996.

Duncan noted that U.S. manufacturers continue to be the largest exporters of goods, with 56 percent of this sector reporting that they export. Furthermore, 49 percent of the manufacturers that export said they plan to increase their export levels through mid-1996.

The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation is the world's largest marketer of information, software and services for business decision making, with worldwide revenue of $4.9 billion in 1994. -0-