The Harris Poll Election 2000; Two Months Before Iowa and New Hampshire Bush and Gore Still Lead; Bush Leads Both Bradley and Gore in General Election Contests

Business Wire, Nov 24, 1999

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 24, 1999--

by Humphrey Taylor and Jonathan W. Siegel

With just two months to go before the first primaries, Al Gore and George W. Bush hold strong leads among Democrats and Republicans in the races for their parties' nominations. But if the election were up to self-declared Independents, Bill Bradley would lead Al Gore and John McCain would be giving George W. Bush a serious run for his money. But with participation in primaries disproportionately involving strong partisans, both Bradley and McCain are likely to find it difficult to sustain momentum unless they can break through and increase their support from core Democratic and Republican voters in January and February.

George W. Bush continues to hold a sizable 55% to 39% lead over Al Gore and a 50% to 37% to 8% lead over Gore if Pat Buchanan is in the race as the Reform Party nominee. Similarly, in a one-on-one match up against Bill Bradley, Bush leads 53% to 40%. These are sizable leads to be sure but they are somewhat smaller than those Bush held over the summer. Note in particular, that Bush still attracts sizable support from Democrats, support that may decline if during the Republican primary season he faces significant enough competition that he has to make public appeals to the more conservative wing of the Republican Party in order to secure the nomination.

These are the key findings about the 2000 Presidential election from the latest Harris Interactive Election 2000 survey of 11,069 registered voters conducted on the Internet between November 12th and November 19th.

                                TABLE 1

  REPUBLICANS' AND INDEPENDENTS' FIRST CHOICE FOR REPUBLICAN NOMINEE
       Base: Registered Republicans and Registered Independents

    "Who is your first choice for the Republican presidential
nomination in 2000?"


                           All          Republicans       Independents

                            %                %                  %

    George W. Bush         44               56                 32
    John McCain            15               11                 20
    Steve Forbes            8                9                  8
    Alan Keyes              4                5                  3
    Gary Bauer              2                2                  1
    Orrin Hatch             2                2                  1
    None of the Above      10                5                 16
    Not Sure               14               10                 19


                               TABLE 2

        DEMOCRATS' AND INDEPENDENTS' PREFERENCE FOR DEMOCRATIC
                         PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE

        Base: Registered Democrats and Registered Independents

    "The Democratic nomination for President is between Al Gore and
Bill Bradley. Please indicate which one you would most like to see
nominated as the Democratic Party's candidate for President." (IF
NECESSARY: Well, if you had to say, would you lean toward Bill Bradley
or Al Gore? Even if you only have a very slight preference, we would
like to know what it is.)


                    All           Democrats        Independents

                     %                %                  %

Al Gore              45              60                 29
Bill Bradley         44              33                 56
Neither              5                2                  9
Not Sure             5                4                  6


                                TABLE 3

          REGISTERED VOTERS PREFERENCES IN RACE FOR PRESIDENT

                        Base: Registered Voters

    "If the Presidential election were held today, and was between
George W. Bush for the Republicans or Al Gore/Bill Bradley for the
Democrats who would you most likely vote for? (IF NECESSARY: Well, if
you had to say, would you lean toward George W. Bush or Al Gore? Even
if you only have a very slight preference, we would like to know what
it is.)
    "If the Presidential election were held today and was between
George W. Bush for the Republicans, Al Gore for the Democrats, or Pat
Buchanan for the Reform Party, who would you most likely vote for?
Well, if you had to say, would you lean toward George W. Bush, Al
Gore, or Pat Buchanan? Even if you only have a very slight preference,
we would like to know what it is.)


                     All       Democrats   Independents  Republicans
                       %           %            %               %

George W. Bush        55          16           57              94
Al Gore               39          78           34               5
Neither                3           3            5               1
Not Sure               3           3            4               1

George W. Bush        53          21           48              90
Bill Bradley          40          70           41               8
Neither                4           4            5               1
Not Sure               4           5            5               1

George W. Bush        50          16           49              86
Al Gore               37          77           30               4
Pat Buchanan           8           2           13               8
None                   2           1            3               1
Not Sure               3           3            5               1