Gore Holds Narrow Electoral College Lead, Many Key States Are Tight; Democrats Poised to Gain 1-3 Senate Seats - No Surprises in Governor Races

Business Wire, Oct 24, 2000

Business Editors

ROCHESTER, N.Y.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 24, 2000

With just over two weeks to go in the presidential race, the results of the most recent Harris Interactive Election 2000 survey of over 25,000 likely voters in 22 states shows Al Gore narrowly holding onto an Electoral College majority but with many key states still very much in play.

In the race for control of the Senate, Republicans appear likely to retain a majority though probably narrower than today's 54 to 46. Overall, the 2000 elections appear likely to have little impact on state house control.

This second round of Harris Interactive's Internet-based Election 2000 state polling was conducted from October 10 through October 17, before the final presidential debate. The focus of this survey was on the larger states that appear most critical in deciding the outcome of the election. Harris Interactive's November polls will expand coverage to an anticipated total of 38 states. Overall, these surveys, and Harris Interactive's parallel national polls, comprise the largest online election study in the history of the world. The final poll results in November are expected to call presidential, senatorial and gubernatorial races in a poll involving more than 100,000 respondents.

Highlights of the Presidential Race

Among the states in Harris Interactive's October poll, Al Gore holds a 262 to 122 Electoral College advantage over George Bush. Overall, including best estimates for states not in the Harris Interactive poll, it is estimated that Gore holds a 317 to 221 advantage over Bush, with 270 needed to win. According to Harris Interactive analysts, it is important to recognize that Gore's advantage is based on very narrow leads in a few large states:

-- Florida (25 Electoral College votes), Gore leads by 49% to 43% in October,
down from 52% to 43% in September.

-- Missouri (11), Gore leads by just 48% to 44%.

-- New Jersey (15), Gore leads by 48% to 40%, down from 58% to 34% in
September.

-- Ohio (21), Gore leads by just 48% to 45%, down slightly from 49% to 44%.

-- Washington (11), Gore leads by just one point (45% to 44%).

Small shifts in these states can decisively change the Electoral College equation. The presidential election is truly either candidate's to win at this point. The possibility should not be discounted that one candidate, more likely Gore because of the concentration of his support in larger states, might win an Electoral College majority while the other, more likely Bush, could win a plurality of the popular vote.

The Nader Factor

Another factor to take into account over the next couple of weeks is the impact of Ralph Nader on outcomes in the states. Nader's percentage of the vote is currently equal to or greater than the difference between Bush and Gore in Colorado and Wisconsin. In several other states where Gore holds small majorities, a last-minute surge in Nader support might jeopardize Gore's lead.

Nip-and-Tuck Outcome

An overall Harris Interactive analysis suggests that as the election heads into the final two weeks, it remains a volatile and unpredictable contest. Although Harris Interactive's polling and that of others suggest Bush has a small lead on a national basis, it remains very much a nip-and-tuck affair at the state level where the outcome is truly decided.

Race for Senate Control

Harris Interactive's survey results suggest that Democrats have excellent chances to gain seats in the following states:

-- Florida, where Bill Nelson (D) leads Bill McCollum (R) by 49%

to 43%.

-- Michigan, where Debbie Stabenow (D) trails Spencer Abraham (R)

by one point.

-- Washington, where Maria Cantwell (D) trails Slade Gorton (R)

by one point.

Republicans appear poised to gain a seat in Virginia, where Republican George Allen leads Democrat Chuck Robb by 54% to 43%.

Taking into account key races in Delaware, Minnesota, Nevada, and Nebraska that Harris Interactive did not cover in this round of polling, it is anticipated that the Democrats will make a net gain of between one and three seats. This would leave the Republicans with a narrower majority than today but still in control of the upper house.

The Governorships

Democrats are poised to retain the governor's mansions in Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina despite spirited Republican challenges, according to Harris Interactive. But the races in Missouri and North Carolina remain very close and upsets are possible. Overall, little or no change is anticipated in the partisan makeup of statehouse occupants; at most Republicans appear likely to gain or lose one of their 30 statehouse majority.

Participating in Harris Interactive Election 2000

Voters who are interested in participating in this Harris Interactive survey may do so by registering with the Harris Poll On-Line at http://vr.harrispollonline.com/e2000. Results are also available on-line through Excite@Home's site http://chooseorlose.excite.com/.

Visitors to the site can cast their votes on these questions and compare their opinions with those who were surveyed from Harris Interactive's online panel of more than 7 million respondents and with other Excite.com members. They can also register with the Harris Poll Online in time to participate in our election surveys this fall.