CIT's Annual Corporate Aircraft Outlook Predicts Cautious, Continued Optimism for 2000-2001; Following a Record Year, CIT Identifies Factors Leading To Ongoing Industry Expansion

Business Wire, Oct 4, 2000

Business Editors

LIVINGSTON, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 4, 2000

CIT Equipment Financing's annual Corporate Aircraft Outlook, released today, forecasts continuing growth in the industry through 2001, despite recent signs of an economic slowdown.

The report attributes strong demand to the healthy economy, strong corporate profits, growing negative reaction to delays of commercial flights, changes in attitude over corporate aircraft ownership, and fractional ownership.

The forecast identifies significant advancements in aircraft design, materials and instrumentation over the last several years, and it reviews the commensurate improvements in speed, range, performance, safety, utility, longevity, etc. As a result, corporate aircraft today are more tailored than ever before in terms of applicable uses or suitability for a particular need.

New and Used Markets

The corporate aircraft market is in the midst of a second golden age with both the new and the used corporate aircraft market experiencing an increase in sales. Last year 535 new aircraft were sold, representing a 16.6% increase, the highest total since 1983. The used market was also very active with a record 2,250 aircraft changing hands.

"We expect total new corporate aircraft sales to rise to 555 in 2000 increasing to 580 sales in 2001," said Michael Paslawskyj, vice president of economic research at The CIT Group. "In fact the new market is now very active and sales have more than doubled since the early 1990s to a record $5.74 billion. Used aircraft sales will reach 2,400 in 2000, with a slight pull back to 2,375 next year," added Paslawskyj.

"The used aircraft market remains an important dynamic that supports the corporate aircraft industry," said Paslawskyj. "One reason is that the used market effectively allows many first-time buyers to enter the market at a more affordable level. It also allows for upgrades or a graduation from one type of aircraft to another when the buyer's travel requirements change. Finally, and most importantly, an active secondary market reassures buyers that they have the flexibility to liquidate their asset at a fair value should such a need arise," added Paslawskyj.

Jets vs. Turboprops

During the 1990s jets became the aircraft of choice. CIT expects this trend to continue as jets lead the industry with a record 430 new aircraft sold this year and another 450 expected to be sold in 2001. Last year nearly 3.4 new jets were purchased for every turboprop and as such CIT predicts that turbo prop activity will be muted, with the aircraft taking on more specialized roles than jets. Going forward, CIT expects turbo prop aircraft to be bought for more specialized tasks, where a jet cannot be substituted, such as for short field operations.

The Economy

The major fundamental underlying CIT's forecast is the assumption that a recession will be avoided during the Outlook period. Should a recession occur in the second half of 2001, CIT cautions that a decline in corporate aircraft sales should be expected, as aircraft supply would rise while demand will fall.

Fractional Ownership

Invented some 15 years ago, fractional ownership is currently the most dynamic and fastest growing niche within the corporate aircraft market. Last year there were 1,693 fractional owners, according to the AvData Inc, an aircraft research firm. Significantly for the industry, about 70% of that number are first time corporate aircraft users.

"2000 marks a milestone for the fractional fleet since the first aircraft, bought during the initial boom of fractional ownership are now coming off the typical five-year contract," said Paslawskyj. "It was once feared that there could have been a deleterious impact on used prices, but so far there has been almost no impact. Part of this has to do with the emergence of a new, second tier of fractional ownership which uses used jets as opposed to new, enabling used jet prices to hold up very nicely," added Paslawskyj.

About CIT

CIT Equipment Financing is a business unit of The CIT Group, Inc. (NYSE: CIT; TSE: CIT.U) offering secured direct loans, leases, sale and leasebacks, vendor financing for manufacturers, wholesale and retail financing for dealers/distributors, portfolio acquisition, participation agreements, and discounting through a nationwide network of field representatives and specialized service groups. With $53 billion in managed assets, The CIT Group, Inc. is the largest publicly owned commercial finance company in the world. For more information, visit the company's website at: www.cit.com.