REMINDER/Ernst & Young's 2002 Retail Holiday Forecast: A More Buoyant Holiday Season Than Most Expect; Many Economic and Retail Industry Positives

Business Wire, Nov 4, 2002

Assignment Desks/News Editors

REMINDER...

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 4, 2002

    WHAT: Industry analysts in Ernst & Young's Retail and Consumer
        Products Group anticipate that the 2002 retail holiday sales
        increase will be better than anticipated -- a 4.8 percent
        increase compared to last year's 3.9 percent increase. In
        addition to economic reasons, there are other positives for
        the retail industry including better management controls of
        inventories and operating expenses, improved liquidity for
        most major retailers, robust growth of Internet distribution
        channels, and increased penetration by retailers'
        higher-margin, private-label merchandise.

        According to Jay McIntosh and Pam Stubing, two of Ernst &
        Young's leading retail industry analysts, "At first we were
        surprised by this relatively buoyant forecast in the face of
        uncertainties in the global economy and in foreign affairs,
        but after reviewing the underlying data, we believe there is
        cause for optimism. The continued growth of the U.S. economy -
        housing, in particular - and low interest rates might tempt
        consumers to spend this holiday season, especially on high-end
        electronics such as plasma televisions. We also anticipate the
        continued growth of discounters and off-price specialty
        retailers at the expense of department stores, and mixed
        performances among the specialty stores."

        Ernst & Young's premier retail holiday sales forecast is based
        on 11 years of data, including stock market performance,
        consumer confidence, unemployment rates and historical
        relationships between retailers and their customers.

        McIntosh and Stubing can shed light on such topics as:

    --  How black "Black Friday" will be

    --  Merchandise winners and losers

    --  How private labels will boost margins

    --  How shopping trends will play out regionally

    --  The fate of luxury goods

    --  How big-box discounters will impact department and specialty
        stores

    --  E-tailing trends

    --  The aftermath of the West Coast dock lockout

    WHO: Jay McIntosh is the Americas Director of Ernst & Young's
        Retail and Consumer Products Group. He is responsible for
        developing and overseeing the group's strategy, sales,
        marketing, thought leadership and relationships with many of
        the largest and best-known retail and consumer product
        companies throughout the Americas.

        Pamela Stubing, retail industry analyst, has researched and
        analyzed the retail and consumer products industry for 25
        years. For 20 years, she was an analyst with Moody's Investors
        Service responsible for compiling its annual retail survey.

--30--JP/ny csm

    CONTACT: To Schedule an Interview
             Wendy Hirschhorn, 212/826-8790
             wendyhi@nyc.rr.com

    KEYWORD: NEW YORK
    INDUSTRY KEYWORD: RETAIL REMINDER
    SOURCE: Ernst & Young's Retail and Consumer Products
Group