New Gallup Poll Finds 2003 Christmas Spending Plans Up Slightly from Mid-November 2002

Business Wire, Nov 20, 2003

Business Editors

PRINCETON, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 20, 2003

Average American Plans to Spend $734 on Christmas Gifts This Year

A new Gallup Poll, conducted Nov. 10-12, finds the public planning to spend an average of $734 on gifts this season. That is a slightly higher estimate than the $690 that Gallup recorded at approximately the same time a year ago. This is also the first time in three years that Gallup has found an increase in Americans' Christmas spending intentions in mid-November. These findings suggest at least the possibility of a better retail season than last year.

At the same time, the figure is lower than Americans' spending intentions at comparable times in 1999 and 2000 -- meaning it doesn't appear, based on these data, that this holiday season is going to be a blockbuster for retailers and return to the robust times of the recent boom.

One cautionary note: Americans' spending intentions change as the holiday season progresses and presumably as they actually begin to buy holiday gifts. Last year, Americans' spending estimates rose from $690 in early November to $753 in late November. Gallup will continue to measure these spending projections in the weeks ahead to see if the same pattern occurs this year. If Americans do not project a higher level of spending in the next few weeks, then retailers may not see much improvement over the 2002 season.

ANALYSIS:

The recent poll asked Americans how much money they personally plan to spend on Christmas gifts this year. Thirty percent of adults say they will spend $1,000 or more on gifts, while 25% plan to spend between $500 and $1,000, and 35% plan to spend less than $500. The mean, as noted, is $734.

The most relevant comparison is between this year's current (Nov. 10-12) estimate, and the estimate obtained in last year's Nov. 11-14 poll. It shows that the average American plans to spend $44 more on Christmas gifts this year compared with last year ($690 in a Nov. 11-14 poll vs. the current $734). If this pattern holds, this Christmas shopping season is shaping up to be a bit better than 2002.

Gallup's 1999 poll found the average respondent said he or she would spend $857 on Christmas gifts, while in 2000, average Christmas spending expectations dropped to $817.

Men Say They Will Spend More on Christmas Presents This Holiday Season?

On average, men estimate they will spend more than women do on Christmas gifts -- $780 vs. $693, respectively. At this time last year, in Gallup's Nov. 11-14 poll, the difference between men and women was much larger, with men reporting an average of $799 and women an average of $592. This gender gap closed substantially by the end of November last year, as women reported higher levels of spending, with an average of $769 for men in the Nov. 22-24 poll and an average of $738 for women.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,004 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Nov. 10-12, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is +/-3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

For interviews with Gallup Poll Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport on this release, please contact Eric Nielsen at 202-715-3030 or Eric_Nielsen@gallup.com.

Broadcast interviews from Gallup's studio in Princeton, N.J. are available.

ABOUT THE GALLUP ORGANIZATION

The Gallup Organization (www.gallup.com) has studied human nature and behavior for more than 70 years. Gallup employs many of the world's leading scientists in management, economics, psychology, and sociology. Gallup performance management systems help organizations increase customer engagement and maximize employee productivity through measurement tools, coursework, and strategic advisory services. Gallup's 2,000 professionals deliver services at client organizations, through the Web, at Gallup University's campuses, and in 40 offices around the world.