Schaeffer's Market Observation Features Goldcorp

Business Wire, April 23, 2004

Business Editors

CINCINNATI--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 23, 2004

Today's Market Observation features Goldcorp (NYSE:GG). Schaeffer's Market Observations are market-based reports that provide insight and analysis from a unique and unbiased perspective. Market Observations are published on www.SchaeffersResearch.com - the home of Bernie Schaeffer and Schaeffer's Investment Research. To receive a free email notification each time a new commentary is written about one of the featured stocks or any of your favorite stocks, click on the following link. http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/addinfo

Drilling Down on Goldcorp

Canadian gold mining company Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) is in the news after releasing first-quarter earnings Thursday morning. GG earned nine cents per share versus seven cents in the year-ago first quarter, a 22-percent increase. Revenue rose to $48.3 million from $47.5 million from the same period in 2003. However, the company also announced that its Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Bruce Humphrey, Sr. and its Vice President Corporate Development Chris Bradbrook were leaving the company. The company acknowledged that investors might see the departures as a red flag but that other employees will pick up the slack quickly. The two left over disagreements over the company's growth strategy.

GG ended the day down more than three percent, even while the PHLX Gold & Silver Index rose nearly two percent. Since hitting an all-time high of 18.50 on December 2, the stock has fallen more than 35 percent. Thursday's close was its lowest since August 2003. It has now fallen below its long-term 20-month moving average for the first time since April 2001.

Click the following link to see the Daily Chart of GG since August 2003 with 10-Day and 20-Day Moving Averages: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=9978

Click the following link to see the Monthly Chart of GG since April 2000 with 20-Month Moving Average: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=9978

Sentiment on GG is interesting as well. Wall Street is relatively negative on the stock. Of the 11 analysts who follow the company, four have "hold" ratings on GG and six have "strong sell" ratings on it. Yet the option activity on GG shows significant and increasing optimism. Its Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) checks in at 0.33. This represents approximately three open call positions for every open put position for all options with less than three months to expiration. The reading is also lower than 88 percent of all daily numbers taken over the past year.

Click the following link to see the Schaeffer's Put/Call Open Interest Ratio for GG: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=9978

Its short interest has remained steady for the past few months at approximately five millions shares. This translates into a short-interest ratio of about three, indicating that it would take three days of average daily stock volume to equal the total number of shares shorted. This number is moderately low and somewhat inconclusive.

Click the following link to see the Short Interest for GG: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=9978

Also, a recent Wall Street Journal article titled, "Gold Standard: Incredible Demand For Commodities Just Might Persist" notwithstanding, recent media sentiment has been relatively negative on the precious metals sector. With gold trading near $390 per ounce, an area that acted as key support in March, it will be interesting to watch GG's price action over the next few weeks.

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Schaeffer's Investment Research, founded by Bernie Schaeffer in 1981, is a financial information and trading resources company. It publishes Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor, the nation's leading options subscription newsletter. The firm's contrarian approach focuses on stocks with technical and fundamental trends that run counter to investor expectations. The firm's website, http://www.SchaeffersResearch.com , is recognized as one of the leading information sources for stock and options traders and was cited as the top options website by both Forbes and Barron's. Click here for more details about Schaeffer's trading methodology: http://www.SchaeffersResearch.com/method