inCode Reveals Top 10 Wireless Predictions for 2005; Increased Competition Drives New Developments in Wireless Voice, Data and Video For Carriers, Manufacturers and Enterprises

Business Wire, Nov 19, 2004

3. The Killer App is Dead, Differentiated Voice Lives

In a highly penetrated and segmented market, a single killer application doesn't exist and carriers should stop looking for it. Plain-vanilla voice represents about 95 percent of wireless carrier revenue, but it has become a commodity. In 2005, network operators finally begin to offer different classes of voice services, including priority communications, and one-to-many or many-to-many services, such as network-based cellular conferencing, group voice messaging and more. Enterprises and consumers value better, faster communications by paying for tiered, premium voice services. The trend begins in Europe, but rapidly pops up in North America, Asia and Latin America as well. No new wireless voice services have appeared since the introduction of commercial push-to-talk services and cellular voice mail in the 1980s. These fresh service options surprise and delight subscribers, bringing new revenue streams to carriers.

4. Integration of Broadband Devices Takes Off

Wireless carriers are making broadband technology choices from the available options, including 1xEV-DO/DV, W-CDMA, TD-CDMA, Flash-OFDM and WiMax. Some of these are personal (Bluetooth and infrared); others local (various flavors of 802.11, fixed wireless and WiMax); and the remainder wide area (UMTS, EV-DO, Flash-OFDM, HSDPA and UMTS-TD). To a degree, each tries to compete in another's space. Manufacturers will begin to integrate devices so they will work across two or more types of networks; devices bridging cellular and WiFi networks will be first. However, WiFi data roaming won't take off to any meaningful degree. Carriers initially protect their networks and their investments in technologies by refusing to let other carriers' customers on their networks.

5. Taking Wireless Seriously, Enterprises Begin to Demand Service

Quality

Enterprise CIOs finally begin to mobilize their organizations as device and network performance meet expectations and enterprise wireless applications continue to emerge. With local number portability fully in place, enterprises apply wireline cost reduction strategies to their wireless spend. Corporations move big blocks of employee phone numbers to the carrier that best meets their budget and mobility needs. Using this volume business as leverage, they demand service-level agreements (SLAs) that ensure quality of service, not just quality of the network providing it. Carriers must accept these SLA demands or prepare to lose high-value customers. Opportunities arise for enterprise network management companies that develop applications enabling enterprises to measure SLA compliance. State public utility commissions continue to keep a watchful eye on service quality, especially since wireless is replacing wireline as the preferred long-distance provider.

6. Wireless Gets into the Multimedia and Consumer Product Bundle

Strong multimedia and cable TV brands must have wireless to round out their service bundles to customers. In addition, big consumer brands need wireless to enhance their customer loyalty programs. To date, few Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) relationships -- in which wireless operators provide turnkey, private-labeled wireless services for major brands -- have been announced. In 2005 that changes. Several huge multimedia companies will enter the wireless market by mid-year and dozens of other companies are poised to follow suit. Bundling is the initial step toward true wireline and wireless convergence across all-IP networks -- about five years away. Eventually, Voice over-Internet Protocol (VoIP) will support delivery of all voice services, whether the subscriber is at home, on the move or at the office.