Organisations in the Wireless Industry Must Prepare for Radically Different Futures, Says Analysys

Business Wire, Feb 8, 2006

CAMBRIDGE, United Kingdom -- The wireless industry could evolve in very different ways over the next five to ten years, demanding robust planning by network operators, technology vendors, service providers and regulators, according to a new report, Scenarios for the Evolution of the Wireless Industry in Europe to 2010 and Beyond, from Analysys Research, the global advisors on telecoms, IT and media (http://research.analysys.com).

Major uncertainties, including fixed-mobile substitution, convergence, service demand, disruptive technologies and changing business models could have a massive impact on the wireless industry. According to report co-author, Alastair Brydon, "We have developed three plausible scenarios - Substitution, Convergence and Fragmentation - for the evolution of the wireless industry, to help network operators, equipment vendors and other interested parties to develop and test their plans. The scenarios demonstrate that some very different outcomes are possible over the next five to ten years."

In the Substitution scenario, mobile operators successfully displace fixed network voice and data services, increasing wireless ARPU and network investment. In the Convergence scenario, the success of fixed broadband and converged services keeps wireless services outdoors and significant mobile operator consolidation occurs. In the Fragmentation scenario, a patchwork of different wireless technologies and services are deployed across Europe.

Report co-author, Mark Heath, observes, "Business plans are often based on unwritten assumptions concerning the evolution of the wireless industry. It is important that organisations evaluate the robustness of their plans in the light of different possible evolution paths. Organisations should identify a preferred scenario and attempt to make it happen, rather than simply predicting and reacting to future events. They also need contingency plans to cope with alternative outcomes."

The report highlights substantial differences between scenarios in terms of mobile service ARPU and network usage. By 2012, monthly spend on mobile varies (according to scenarios) between EUR27.10 and EUR35.20, with monthly usage per customer varying between 53MB and 550MB.

The report can be ordered from http://research.analysys.com, priced at GBP1900 plus VAT for a five-user licence, with custom options on request. For more information, phone Analysys Research on 44 (0) 1223 460600 or email research@analysys.com.

An extended version of this press release is available on request