Zacks.com Featured Expert Kevin Matras Highlights: Anixter Int'l, Bon-Ton Stores and World Fuel Services

Business Wire, March 28, 2007

CHICAGO -- Kevin Matras explains that a backtested trading strategy is the only way to go. Stocks in this week's article are Anixter International, Inc. (NYSE: AXE), Bon-Ton Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: BONT) and World Fuel Services Corporation (NYSE: INT). Click here for the full story exclusively on Zacks.com: http://at.zacks.com/?id=109

Screen of the Week written by Kevin Matras of Zacks Investment Research:

This past weekend, I heard over and over that last week's move was the best in four years for the Dow, and that the market was back on track. But wasn't it just four weeks ago that the media pulled out all the stops in declaring the market dead and that a bear market was upon us?

Who knows what tomorrow will bring, or next week or the end of the year. But one thing is for sure --- managing your portfolio based on the endless back-and-forth, bull market/bear market predictions on TV will probably have you making the wrong decisions over and over again.

Don't get me wrong, the headlines (good or bad) sure do grab your attention and the stories are usually good reads, but don't trade off of them. Eventually of course, the headlines will coincidentally be in synch with the market, but don't mistake it for anything more.

If you want to increase your probabilities for making money in stocks, you need to know what works. Moreover, you need to know what works in both up markets and down markets. And the way to do all that is to see what has historically worked in the past. Many people who got killed in 2001 and 2002 thought they had finally mastered the market after 2003's cake-walk. But then 2004 (in spite of a decent finish) gave many people a rude awakening or, at the very least, a bit of disappointment.

But what if you had a strategy that had proven to work in both up markets and down markets? It wouldn't really matter so much what the market was doing then, would it? That's something everyone could use. And backtesting is how to get it.

Backtesting is simply a way of determining whether a particular stock picking strategy generally picks stocks that go up once they've been identified as opposed to picking stocks that get buried once they've been identified.

Most people, whether they know it or not, do have a strategy. Maybe they tend to pick stocks with low P/E ratios and low Price-to-Book values. Or maybe they look for cheap stocks with good broker ratings. These are strategies. They're very simple strategies. But they're strategies nonetheless. But wouldn't it be great to see how these eIstrategies' had done in the past, so you'd know what your probabilities of success could be in the future?

If you saw that a stock picking strategy did nothing but lose money year after year, there's NO WAY you'd want to trade that strategy or use that screen to pick stocks. On the other hand, if you saw a strategy that did great year after year, then you'd of course want to use that strategy because it's proven to be profitable and a good stock picker.

Granted, backtesting isn't a eIbox of magic'. And it won't preclude you from ever having another losing trade. But it's a great way to see what has worked and what hasn't BEFORE you put your money at risk! And don't think you need to wait for another crazy bull market like 2003 to make money in stocks. Just take a look at the some of the worst years in the recent past and you'll find hundreds and hundreds of stocks that were in solid uptrends making new highs.

In fact, take a look at the last month and you'll find plenty of stocks in solid uptrends doing great. All you have to do is get into those. Sure, it sounds easier said than done, but you don't need to get into all of them, just some of them. And if your strategy has proven able to pick winning stocks in the past, you've got a great probability that it'll keep on doing it now. Of course, even the best strategies will hit a rough patch now and then, but its winning past makes it a better bet than guessing and hoping for the best.

Here are a few new picks from some of our winningest backtested strategies (for Monday 3/26/07):

AXE    Anixter International, Inc.
       (from the ROE2 screen)

BONT   Bon-Ton Stores, Inc.
       (from the Big Money screen)

INT    World Fuel Services Corp.
       (from the Best Buys screen)

Sign up for a free trial to the Research Wizard and get all of the stocks on all of our best screens. Or create and backtest your own ideas and strategies. You can do it. http://at.zacks.com/?id=111

Disclosure: Officers, directors and/or employees of Zacks Investment Research may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material. An affiliated investment advisory firm may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material.

About Screen of the Week

Zacks.com created the first and best screening system on the web earning the distinction as the "#1 site for screening stocks" by Money Magazine. But powerful screening tools is just the start. That is why Zacks created the Screen of the Week to highlight profitable stock picking strategies that investors can actively use. Each week, Zacks Profit from the Pros free email newsletter shares a new screening strategy. Learn more about it here http://at.zacks.com/?id=112