Rudy Giuliani Back on Top for Republican Presidential Nomination While Hillary Clinton Retains Her Commanding Lead Among Democrats

Business Wire, Oct 24, 2007

Thompson Slips and Romney Jumps Up to Third Place Among Republicans

ROCHESTER, N.Y. -- After his late start and quick rise to the top, former Senator Fred Thompson has already begun to drop back down in the race for the Republican nomination. This month, just one-quarter (26%) of those who say they will vote in a Republican primary or caucus would choose him compared to one-third (32%) in September. Rudy Giuliani is back on top as three in ten (31%) Republican primary or caucus voters would vote for him, up from 28 percent last month. Mitt Romney is the other big story this month as he jumps into third place. Last month, just one in ten (9%) would vote for him but this month he has jumped up to 17 percent. John McCain is in fourth; 12 percent say they would vote for him, similar to last month's 11 percent.

On the Democratic side, things are much more stable - again. Just under half (45%) of those who say they would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus would vote for Senator Hillary Clinton while one-quarter (25%) would vote for Senator Barack Obama. These numbers are virtually unchanged from last month. John Edwards slips from 14 percent to 12 percent of the Democratic vote. Former Vice President and Nobel Peace Prize winner Al Gore (but non-candidate) remains steady at 10 percent (one thing to note is that part of the survey had been completed for this prior to the Nobel Prize announcement). All other contenders are in single digits.

These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 2,114 U.S. adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive[R] between October 4 and 18, 2007. This survey included 818 adults who expect to vote in a Democratic primary or caucus and 603 adults who expect to vote in a Republican primary or caucus. Like all polls conducted well before an election, this should not be read as a prediction, rather as a snap shot of the presidential "horse races", early in the race. Furthermore, many people who say they will vote in a primary or caucus almost certainly will not do so.

Votes by Generation

One interesting difference is in the support of the different generations. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is ahead among all four generations, but her lead grows as her supporters age. While four in ten (41%) Echo Boomers (those aged 18-30) say they would vote for Senator Clinton, over one-third (35%) would vote for Senator Obama. Among Baby Boomers (those aged 43-61), her lead is 47 percent to his 26 percent. Among Matures (those aged 62 and older), Senator Obama drops into third. Half of this oldest generation (51%) would vote for Hillary Clinton while one in five would vote for John Edwards and only 16 percent for Barack Obama.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani is the candidate of choice for Echo Boomers (26%) as well as 41 percent of Gen Xers (those aged 31-42). Among the youngest Americans who would vote in a Republican caucus or primary, the oldest candidate, John McCain, is in second as almost one-quarter (24%) of Echo Boomers would vote for him. Fred Thompson is still on top for Baby Boomers, but Rudy Giuliani is a close second (29% and 27% respectively). For Matures, there positions are reversed as Rudy Giuliani edges out Fred Thompson, 32 percent to 30 percent.

So What?

With the first ballots due to be cast in just two short months, other Democrats have to make serious inroads to catch Senator Clinton. While Senator Obama comes close among the younger voters, they do not tend to get out and actually vote - Baby Boomers and Matures do, especially in primaries and caucuses.

On the Republican side, there is a lot more flux in this race and the next two months may show some dramatic changes. Some of the changes this month might be attributed to Newt Gingrich officially deciding not to run. In September, seven percent said they would vote for him. Could this be part of Mitt Romney's rise this month? As others continue to drop out, where their support goes could make a world of difference for the Republicans still in the race.

[TABLE OMITTED]
[TABLE OMITTED]
[TABLE OMITTED]
[TABLE OMITTED]

Methodology

This Harris Poll([R]) was conducted online within the United States between October 4 and 18, 2007 among 2,114 adults, 818 of whom said they would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus and 603 of whom said they would vote in a Republican primary or caucus (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.