LTE Early Leader in 4G Wireless Race, But Others Gain, Visant Strategies Report Finds

Business Wire, April 16, 2008

NEW YORK -- The early favorite in 4G wireless is the long-term roadmap for UMTS, LTE, but other technologies are now gaining support, according to a new study by Visant Strategies.

"We see LTE as the leading OFDM-based platform in 2014, accounting for 39 million subscribers and $9 billion in equipment revenues, with the market accelerating the next three years after that as far as subscribers and infrastructure sales go," said Andy Fuertes of Visant Strategies. "These next six years will lay the foundation for 4G with the market really growing in earnest during the years after that."

Three-billion plus GSM and UMTS/HSPA subscribers in 2008 will lead to LTE being utilized by hundreds of carriers during 2014, according to "4G Wireless - From 2008 to 2014: LTE, UMB, HSPA+, WiMAX and 802.20."

HSPA+ will also be widely utilized, the study finds, with it being very competitive with mobile WiMAX as both technologies are rolled out in 2009. HSPA+ will account for more than twice the subscribers as any other 4G alternative in 2014, the report finds, as well as for half of all 4G femtocell subscribers that year. "We see HSPA+ being widely used during the next years in many instances as a final step before an OFDM-based solution is deployed," Fuertes said.

WiMAX will continue to be mostly used for fixed applications, the report finds, seeding the market for the next revision of WiMAX, 802.16m. 802.16m and 802.16e devices are expected to account for over 20 million device shipments in 2014, according to the report.

Other 4G wireless paths will fare well too, the report finds. "It's too early to rule out a market for UMB beginning in 2009 since there exists such a strong CDMA2000 and EV-DO subscriber base," said Larry Swasey of Visant Strategies.

The report includes annual base station shipments and deployments as well as client, femtocell, device and CPE shipments and revenues through 2014 for each 4G technology as well as yearly subscribers and revenues for each.