Ascend: Aviation Professionals Doubt Further Improvement in Airline Safety

Business Wire, May 1, 2008

LONDON -- A majority of aviation professionals do not expect airline safety to improve during the next five years.

According to the results of the survey of over 140 aviation industry professionals - more than half of whom indicated that aviation safety is their direct responsibility - 56% feel that the level of airline safety will stay the same or worsen over the near to medium term. The survey was conducted by Ascend, the world's leading provider of information and consultancy to the global aerospace industry.

The aviation industry has been making steady improvements in its safety record since the end of the Second World War. The annual number of fatal accidents involving passengers has fallen consistently, and at present the average for the current decade is significantly below that of the 1990s. Last year, in its annual safety survey Ascend revealed that in 2007 passenger fatalities fell by 20% on 2006 and the average number of fatal accidents since 2000 is 16.0, and in the 1990s the average was 24.2. Ascend wanted to test whether industry insiders were confident this trend could continue.

People at the heart of the problem - and the solution

The Ascend survey also asked participating industry insiders from across the globe to identify the biggest barriers to further improvements in safety by ranking the importance of 10 potential threats. Causing the most concern is a 'shortage of experienced personnel' with an average score of 7.3. Respondents ranked 'Fatigue/work practice' (7.1) and 'airline management experience/attitudes/culture' (6.6) as the next most significant risks to improved aviation safety.

When asked to rank the key/critical drivers for improving air safety, respondents cited 'management accountability for safety' (average score 7) as the most important. Second and third most important respectively were 'improvements in aircraft technology' (6.6) and the 'increased sharing of safety data/analysis' (6.4). Out of the ten possible safety drivers they were asked to rate, survey respondents said they considered 'increase in effective regulatory oversight' (5.4), 'increased use of safety audits/operating bans' (5.3) and 'improved ground infrastructure' (5.2) the least important factors.

"This is actually a more pessimistic outlook from the industry than might be expected," says Paul Hayes, Director, Ascend. "Particularly given the advances in safety standards we have witnessed over the past 50 years. However, we are seeing significant change in the industry, in particular with rapid expansion in Asia and the Middle East. This puts added pressure on everyone to maintain and improve safety standards."