Business Services Industry
Zacks Industry Rank Analysis Highlights: Invesco Ltd, Franklin Templeton Investments, AllianceBernstein Holding, T. Rowe Price Group and Janus Capital Group
Business Wire, June 18, 2009
CHICAGO -- Zacks.com releases the latest Zacks Industry Rank. Stocks featured in this week’s analysis include Invesco Ltd (NYSE: IVZ), Franklin Templeton Investments (NYSE: BEN), AllianceBernstein Holding (NYSE: AB), T. Rowe Price Group (Nasdaq: TROW) and Janus Capital Group (NYSE: JNS).
Zacks Industry Rank Analysis is written by Charles Rotblut, CFA, Senior Market Analyst for Zacks.com.
This Week: Forecasts Rising For Fund Managers
The spring rally has led to higher profit expectations for mutual fund managers.
To a large extent, this is a bit of a no-brainer for those who understand how the investment management industry works. Money managers earn a fee based on assets under manager (AUM). Any increase in the size of a portfolio should result in more fee dollars.
The S&P 500 rose approximately 40% since early March. All things being equal, AUM should have increased as a result.
However, fund managers have also enjoyed an influx of dollars. According to Strategic Insight, U.S. investors added more than $55 billion into stock and bond funds last month, making May the second consecutive month with $50 billion of inflows.
It's worth adding the calendar into the explanation for why estimates are rising. The first-half of the year is almost completed. We already know what the first-quarter profits were and the data signals that the second-quarter should be strong. This means that analysts should have greater confidence about what full-year earnings will look like than they did 2 months ago.
But, given that most of this is already known, why did many analysts wait until the past 7 days to raise their forecasts? The announcement of May AUM numbers are the likely reason.
Last week, Invesco Ltd (NYSE: IVZ), Franklin Templeton Investments (NYSE: BEN) and AllianceBernstein Holding (NYSE: AB) all said AUM rose in May relative to April. Though this should not be surprising, analysts probably wanted confirmation of higher AUM before adjusting their profit forecasts.
[Table Omitted]
*Profit projections for IVZ are up a total of 5% since late May.
Still Room For More Upward Revisions
Keep an eye on the Zacks Rank. T. Rowe Price Group (Nasdaq: TROW) is a Zacks #2 Rank ("buy") stock. AllianceBernstein Holding (NYSE: AB), Franklin Templeton Investments (NYSE: BEN), Invesco Ltd (NYSE: IVZ) and Janus Capital Group (NYSE: JNS) are Zacks #3 Rank ("hold") stocks.
The sheer number of covering analysts is reason why none of the stocks are on the Zacks #1 Rank ("strong buy") list. Agreement is one of the factors considered by the Zacks Rank and while several analysts have raised full-year forecasts, others have not. The lack of revisions by all of the covering analysts hurts the Zacks Rank, but also provides the potential for more estimate revisions.
The assumption being, of course, that current consensus estimates are too conservative. Given current trends, this assumption may well turn out to be correct.
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