Research and Markets: 1Q09 United Kingdom Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008-2013 - Orange to Become More Profitable Than Vodafone, O2, and T-Mobile in UK's Mobile Operator Space in 2013

Business Wire, Feb 13, 2009

DUBLIN -- Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/b34fcf/1q09_united_kingdo) has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "1Q09 United Kingdom Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 - 2013: Orange to Become More Profitable Than Vodafone, O2, and T-Mobile in UK's Mobile Operator Space In 2013" to their offering.

Our Mobile Operator Forecast on the United Kingdom provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for the UK's wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for the United Kingdom include Vodafone, O2, Orange, T-Mobile (One2One), and 3 (Hutchison). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

Our Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200 mobile operators in 50 countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Summary

Subscriber growth is slowing down gradually.

* 4.2% industry average subscriber growth in 3Q.2008

ARPU level in the United Kingdom is stabilizing.

* 2.8% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 3Q.2008

Data ARPUs continue to grow.

* 6.1% industry average growth in 3Q.2008

Minutes of Use per Subscriber continue to rise.

* 5.8% industry average MOU growth in 3Q.2008

EBITDA growth turned negative in 3Q.2008.

* 10% operator-wide average growth in 3Q.2008, down from 6% in 3Q.2007

So what is IEMR's Forecast? Total subscribers in the U.K. to reach 82.1 million in 2013.

* We forecast that, in 2013, Vodafone and O2 will be serving 20.6 million and 19.9 million subscribers respectively.

Market shares of the largest four operators to remain similar over the next five years.

* We forecast that, in 2013, Vodafone, O2, Orange, and T-Mobile (One2One) will have 25.1%, 24.3%, 20.3% and 22.4% of total subscribers respectively

ARPU levels in the United Kingdom to become stable.

* We expect the operator-wide average ARPU level to remain in the range of 22 - 23 over the next five years

Orange will enjoy the highest level of profitability over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013.

* Profitability measured by EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will, on average, remain stable over the next several years with the industry average margin changing from 24.0% in 2009 to 23.0% in 2013; However, this will still be one of the lowest EBITDA margin levels in the world.

* While EBITDA margins of O2 and Orange will be improving, those of Vodafone and T-Mobile (One2One) will be decreasing over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013.

Key Topics Covered:

Charts 1-68 Results & Forecasts for: CY 2001-CY 2013

Charts 69-136 Quarterly Results for: Mar 2003 - Dec 2013

Companies Mentioned:

* 3 (Hutchison)

* O2

* Orange

* T-Mobile (One2One)

* Vodafone

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/b34fcf/1q09_united_kingdo