Linux: Youave Come a Long Way, Babya[broken bar]

Electronic News, May 8, 2000 by Robyn Bergeron

Okay, I admit it. It has been five years since the last time I installed Linux. Back in early 1995 when I downloaded my first copy and installed it on my ever-so-cool 486 laptop, one thing was certain: it was definitely NOT sexy. It was more of an awkward teenager, graduating from the eighth grade into high school, not too sure of itself or where it was going. Installation was bordering on nightmarish; praying that your video card and disk drives would work was a common practice.

So imagine my surprise while installing Linux two nights ago, when I peered questioningly at the graphical configuration option. Graphical configuration? My computer practically built the file systems itself. Everything worked. My fancy new MP3 server was up and running in no time. (Note to RIAA: Please do not come to my house. I legally own all the music on my server and I am not sharing it with anyone.)

Linux, now a fully blossomed young adult, is on the brink of amazing success, but not without possible speed bumps ahead. Compare it to the American Revolution: A bunch of angry people get together, revolt against the English, and use strange, unheard of tactics to free themselves from tyranny. Amazingly enough, they succeeded, but then the question was: What next?

In the server world, Linux is sitting on what is about to become an exponential curve. When looking at the entry-level server market (those costing less than $100,000), units shipped in 1999 only accounted for 6 percent of that market. However, In-Stat predicts that the percentage will nearly double for the year 2000aup to 11 percent of the market.

And what about embedded devices? Companies such as Lineo, Lynx, RedHat, and Monte Vista are ramping up their real-time and embedded versions of Linux, hoping to cash in on the profits of devices and toys connected to the Internet, as wireless and broadband become more of a reality. MP3 players for cars, set-top boxes, and a whole host of other high-tech gadgets are items that will see phenomenal growth over the next three to five yearsaa market that certainly will not be ignored.

Linux has done amazingly well in all the markets it has entered, but the "what next?" problem still looms in the distance. So what are the greatest challenges Linux faces today?

Who are we, and what are we doing? Linux is based on UNIX. So is Linux competing with Sun's Solaris, or Microsoft's Windows? In the server space or the home computing space? It's nice to know that Linux is so portable; it could be used on just about anythingabut this could well be confusing possible consumers. Companies need to more narrowly define their offerings for consumers to be aware of what's really out there, instead of wondering about what this mysterious Linux product is all about.

Get embedded. Getting embedded is Linux's biggest opportunity to prove to the world that it is a stable, robust operating system, and people will remember this all the way to their local consumer electronics store to purchase their next computer. Remember the joke about if cars or airplanes ran on the Windows operating system? It's not a joke anymore.

The Linux community certainly deserves a round of applause for the tremendous progress made since the early days, and particularly for advances in the past year; the year ahead only holds huge growth and immense possibilities for the OS as it becomes more mainstream. I can envision the tee shirts now; "Linux: Not just for geeks anymore!"

Robyn Bergeron, a former UNIX systems administrator, is an industry analyst with Cahners In-Stat Group. Please contact her at (480) 609-4536 or at rbergeron@instat.com.