Mobile processors to dominate PC processors: Lower power, longer battery life, wireless networks define designs - Semiconductor Trends 2002

Electronic News, May 6, 2002 by Tom Murphy

Call it the legacy of Transmeta, or call it the anti-beige box trend, but don't call it a desktop as PC semiconductors designers focus their attention on the mobile market.

In the next 12 months, expect to see a definitive trend making microprocessors and all of the other PC components around them less power-hungry. That means specific processes and specific products set up for PCs that are designed to operate for 8 hours on a single battery charge.

When exactly eight hours of computing on battery will become a practical reality is still a little bit unclear, but clearly the trend is toward PC semiconductors manufacturers and PC system designers taking more steps in that direction than ever before.

The most visible evidence of the low-power move is Intel's efforts around its Banius processor. Built specifically for mobile applications, with the Banias, Intel is cutting some ties to the past-the company used to take its desktop processors, add a few process technology tweaks, make some interesting power-saving software measures and package them as mobile processors.

Not anymore. When Transmeta Corp. came to town in 1999, the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company introduced its Crusoe brand of processors and its Long Run software. The combination's compelling performance on mobile applications prompted Intel to answer, first with specific Pentium III processors for laptop computers and then a mobile version of the Pentium 4.

"The trend that will dominate PC microprocessors is the move to mobile as its own separate category," said Kevin Krewell, an analyst with Micro Design Resources (MDR) of San Jose. (MDR is owned by Reed Business Information, the parent company of Electronic News.)

"Intel has specifically designed Banius from the ground up for mobile PCs," Krewell said. "And the growth of wireless LANs clearly indicates the trend away from the big beige box that sits on our desktop. These companies are recognizing that we like to have our PCs with us." Intel's Banius processor is set to be introduced in the second half of next year.

Since late January, Intel has made a lot of noise about incorporating 802.11 wireless networking standards into its PC semiconductors. And, at a recent trade show, Transmeta sang the praises of OQO, a San Francisco-based design company which allegedly built a full-featured PC that fits in the palm of the hand.

The OQO design could only be completed when the Crusoe processor was introduced, said company officials. And Transmeta officials still believe they have the only logical processor solution for small, thin-and-light mobile PC form factors.

Whether or not the OQO design catches on or if Transmeta stays around as a stand-alone entity-the company has fallen on hard times recently-mobile PC designs are becoming more modular. They are being separated into their core components in order to achieve small form factors, Krewell said.

The OQO machine uses a tiny touch screen, but its designers said a keyboard could be plugged into the machine. The OQO machine could also be plugged into a docking station for the full desktop experience, according to an OQO spokesman.

PCs will soon resemble component stereo systems, Krewell said. With emerging I/O standards as PCI Express (formerly known as 3GIO) and Serial ATA, mobile PCs will soon have even more capability to have more peripheral devices plugged into it.

So even though small form factors may limit the capabilities of the standalone mobile PC, the ability to plug-and-play ever-more external components should give computer owners and IT managers the ability to upgrade more frequently instead of having to depreciate the entire system.

Perhaps the second most important trend to emerge in PC semiconductors will be the introduction of Advanced Micro Devices Inc.'s (AMD) Hammer-based microprocessors that will execute both 32-bit and 64-bit instructions.

Krewell said he believes the impact of that processor core won't be realized until after 12 months. The Hammer core will give AMD the opportunity to move up to the next level in processor performance in 32-bit applications, but it still remains to be seen if the 64-bit capability will be fully realized. Intel Corp. hinted recently that it would introduce instruction set extensions when it rolls out its P4 on 90nm technology in the second half of next year. Some speculate that the next processor core from Intel, code-named Prescott, will be able to execute 64-bit instructions.