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Electronic News, July 26, 1999 by Arik Hesseldahl

Chicago

By definition, a prediction is a statement made about something yet to take place, based on some sort of special knowledge of the one making the statement.

But you have to take into account the personal point of view of those doing the predicting.

One prediction that sticks out in my mind from my trip here for the Internet World trade show came from Kevin O'Connor, chief executive officer of Internet advertising king DoubleClick Inc.

O'Connor confidently predicted that the convergence of the PC and television will never happen.

"There are probably a few companies here that are betting their life on convergence, and I apologize, but I think it's a bad bet," he said.

He opened his speech with a personal story. In the early 1980s he started a software company that specialized in getting PCs to talk to business mainframes. Practically every potential customer he called told him that the PC would never have a place in the business environment. Of course they all turned out to be wrong.

After his speech, I walked immediately into an exhibit put on by Panja, the former AMX Corp., a Dallas-based maker of remote controls for home electronics. Its new product streams downloadable media like MP3 music files and video directly to where you want it-your TV or stereo-without any need for a PC. It also handles Web browsing and e-mail and can talk to several appliances in the home, including the PC, and even a home security system.

Keep TV and PC separate, and O'Connor's stranglehold on Internet advertising remains intact. Converge the TV with the PC, and Doubleclick becomes vulnerable to competition from established advertising firms who have the TV advertising market divvied up. You tell me which one will win the battle between a Web banner and a talking dog that says "Yo Quiero Taco Bell."

He may be right or he may be wrong, but it's no surprise to me that O'Connor would do his best to disparage the marriage of TV and PC.

Arik Hesseldahl is senior editor for computers and communications at Electronic News. His e-mail address is arik@cahners.com