Commercial aircraft decline - Connect with Fleck - marker demand for connectors, cable assemblies and backplanes expected to decrease

Electronic News, August 12, 2002 by Ken Fleck

COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT, A KEY END-MARKET for connectors, has been in a sharp decline since early 2001 and exacerbated after Sept. 11. The demand for connectors, cable assemblies and backplanes for this market is projected to decrease worldwide 23.8 percent in 2002. Total connector industry shipments were $1.6 billion worldwide in 2001, projected to decline to $1.29 billion in 2002. Of the $1.6 billion worldwide in 2001, commercial aircraft accounted for $1 billion, while civil/general business aircraft accounted for $148 million. Connectors and cable assemblies utilized at airports accounted for $406 million. At the airport, this includes communication, radar, jet-bridge and runway.

In commercial aircraft, in terms of connectors and cable assemblies, narrow-body aircraft accounted for $654 million worldwide demand in 2001, while wide-body aircraft represented $392 million. Examining commercial aircraft, connectors, cable assemblies and backplanes on the airframe are projected to decrease by 22 percent to $278 million; and the electronics black boxes--which include communications (down 21 percent to $76 million), navigation/avionics (down 19 percent to $445 million)--and all other, including cellular and entertainment (down 20 percent to $114 million).

Total Airbus rollout in 2001 was 325 aircraft for a 39 percent market share between Airbus and Boeing. In 2002 Airbus projects 320 aircraft deliveries, and in 2003 it predicts 300 aircraft deliveries.

Total rollout in 2001 by Boeing was 527 aircraft. This represented a 61.9 percent market share between Boeing and Airbus. Boeing projects a sharp decline in deliveries of 57 percent for 2002 to a forecast of 300 aircraft. This would lower Boeing's share to 48 percent (Boeing and Airbus combined). In 2003 Boeing projects another decline of 8 percent with a projected 275 deliveries.

Business and civil aircraft include piston, turboprop and jets. Cessna Aircraft delivered 868 aircraft in 2001, including 172/172S Skyhawk (350), T182/182 Skylane (164), 206/T206 Stationair (93), 208 Caravan I(16) 208B Caravan IB (35), Citation CJ1 (31), Citation Bravo (27), Citation Encore (32), Citation Excel (60) and Citation X (25). Piper Aircraft accounted for 330 aircraft shipments in 2001.

Raytheon Aircraft shipped 252 aircraft in 2001, including Beech Bonanza A36/B36TC(65), Beech Baron 58(35), Beech King Air C90B/B200/350 (87), Beech 1900D (5), Premier I(3), Beechjet 400A (17) and Hawker 800XP (40). Learjet (Bombardier) shipped 193 aircraft.

Examining connector designs for commercial aircraft, military circular connectors (such as the Mil-C-26500 and firewall connectors) accounted for $205 million; commercial circular connectors (such as audio connectors and earphone cable assemblies) accounted for $19 million; RF coax (such as BNC and C) accounted for $450 million; fiber optic connectors (such as plastic fiber) accounted for $48 million; D-sub connectors accounted for $56 million; ARINC connectors (such as 404 and 600) accounted for $90 million; and printed circuit connectors (such as post/box and DIN) accounted for $86 million.

Among cable assemblies: RF cable assemblies accounted for $206 million; I/O cable assemblies accounted for $216 million; and woven cable assemblies accounted for $17 million.

Fleck Research may be contacted at (714) 953-9000 or www.fleckresearch.com Web site.