Editor's note - Viewpoint - Industry Trend or Event - Editorial

Electronic News, August 19, 2002 by Ed Sperling

Every now and then it's helpful to take a couple steps back to consider the big picture rather than the day-to-day ups and downs of the market.

That picture isn't about stock performance. It's about what drives the stock performance, and seeing it clearly requires you to put some structure around all the new developments underway. There are scores of new technologies being developed, but the trick is figuring out the convergence points in various markets and across all of them.

One such focal point is in the health care field, which over the next 10 to 15 years will shift from generalized treatment, based on statistical probabilities and epidemiological studies, to personalized treatment. This shift will rely heavily on a variety of electronic devices ranging from microelectrical mechanical systems (MEMS) chips to organic ICs and nanotubes, creating huge new market opportunities as baby boomers hit retirement age.

Convergence also hits at the chip level, where SOCs and fusing together digital and analog functions are under development. Companies such as IBM are taking technologies that were developed for high-performance computers and moving them into low-cost computing devices, providing the foundation for the first time for widespread artificial intelligence.

Convergence is well underway in automobiles, as well, in everything from telematics to voice interfaces, and the number of components will only increase as car manufacturers shift from gasoline-powered engines to fuel cells and hybrids. All of the major car companies are neck-deep in trying to map out what the future automobile will look like and what sorts of components will be used to make it run.

In addition, those cars will run as part of a global network of information that will share everything from Web-based information about which route to take to avoid traffic to making reservations for dinner along the way. The people who design systems for law enforcement talk about being able to avoid police chases by simply shutting down cars, no matter where they are on the network.

Couple that with security systems based on semiconductor technology, which will range from components in cars to smart cards to potentially every other device that employs electronics. And as this trend takes shape, these changes will accelerate as they learn to build off each other.

Concurrent with all of this, we're witnessing a subtle shift throughout our culture. Mark Jensen, who runs Deloitte & Touch's national venture group, said one of the most intriguing changes among the upcoming generation is that it is used to having information at its fingertips. All of us who predate the Internet Age had to learn everything by committing it to memory. Those who grew up in the Internet Age simply learned how to find it quickly.

That trend will only become more pronounced in the future, and the number of devices will swell as the demand for ubiquitous communication becomes reality. In electronics, this spells opportunity for many years to come-providing you watch the big picture and position yourself to take advantage of it.

Rather than hitting a wall, electronics is heading for an open canyon of opportunity. And as corporations everywhere step up their efficiency measures and outsource nonessential functions, that opportunity will only become more pervasive. On a macro level, looking at the forest instead of the trees, things are looking very upbeat.