Steam builds on Intel Pentium rollouts

Electronic News, Nov 29, 1993 by Walter Andrews

NEW YORK--With the introduction of new Pentium microprocessors over the next few months, Intel plans the biggest ramp-up of a new MPU in its history with the Pentium projected to be 25 percent of the company's chip sales in a year.

"We think by this time next year we can support 15 percent of the total worldwide computer market with Pentium chips and 25 percent of Intel shipment volume," said Curt Nichols, Intel's Pentium marketing manager. "We will ramp the Pentium process into production much faster than the 486 (CPU). It will be the fastest CPU ramp-up in Intel history."

Thomas P. Kurlak, first VP of Merrill Lynch in New York, said Mr. Nichols' remarks were consistent with what he is forecasting: Total Intel production of 41 million devices in 1994 versus 33 million in 1993. Pentium production will be at about a 10 million annual rate by late 1994, he said, with estimated output for the year of 6 million. Krishna Shanker of Salomon Brothers in New York estimated 1994 Pentium output would be between 4 million and 6 million devices as did Ken LOwe of Dataquest, San Jose, Calif.

Mr. Kurlak estimated Pentium 1993 shipments at 500,000 devices with the existing 486 MPU accounting for 25 million of Intel's 33 million chip total. The bulk of remainder is taken up by the older 386 MPUs, he said.

Mr. Kurlak projected Intel would produce 700,000 Pentiums in Q1 of 1994, 1 million in Q2, 1.6 million in Q3 and 2.7 million in Q4.

When the current 5V 60MHz and 66MHz Pentiums were introduced in March, Mr. Nichols noted Intel said it planned the introduction over the next two years of a 100MHz Pentium using an advanced 0.6 micron process on 8-in. wafers versus the existing 0.8 micron, 6-in. wafer process. It also has been reported (EN, Sept. 6) that the ramp-up would be steep, and Mr. Nichols' remarks provided further indications on how steep the ramp-up might be.

Mr. Nochols would not deny reports that Intel has already been producing since July the new 100MHz, 3.3V Pentium at its Santa Clara, Calif., fab at a rate of more than 1,000 wafers a week--each wafer having die for more than 50 MPUs. "I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm not saying anthing ... We haven't said anything publicly about sampling and production (of the new Pentiums) so far. We intend to remain quiet until the announcement. We're trying to keep people focused on the current Pentium products."

He noted, however, the Santa Clara fab has a 0.6 micron, 8-in. wafer capability as will new Intel fabs in Ireland and Albuquerque, N.M.

One analyst said Intel planned to announce in December a new family of 3.3V devices with speeds ranging from 70MHz to 100MHz, while others expected announcements early next year. Mr. Kurlak said an announcement is needed soon to "shut up" publicity on the competing PowerPC alliance of IBM, Motorola and Apple Computer.

The alliance expects to produce more than 1 million PowerPCs next year based alone on system requirements of Apple and IBM, said Phil Pompa, marketing director for Motorola's RISC division in Austin, Tex., where the 603 is being produced. Volume production is planned for mid-1994 on the 603 PowerPC, which is aimed at the same performance levels as existing Pentiums and 601 PowerPCs but avoids the mechanisms for cooling and battery life.

Mr. Nichols, however, denied there would be an announcement in December. "We're not going to make an announcement next month. The first half of '94 is as much as I'm going to say."

Merrill Lynch's Mr. Kurlak and Dataquest's Mr. Lowe said the new faster, lower-power MPU would be the "mainstream" Pentium accounting for the bulk of Pentium sales. "You're drawing your own conclusions there," said Mr. Nichols. He said there are no plans to upgrade to the 0.6 micron, 8-in. wafer capability at the two fabs--Albuquerque and Oregon--currently making the existing 60MHz and 66MHz Pentiums.