Technological implementations of Information Superhighway seen as 'in hand.'

Electronic News, Sept 26, 1994 by Edgar A. Sack

There has been a tremendous amount written about the "Information Superhighway" with, we believe, good and valid reason; there is a very major change in the offing in the way that we access and exchange information. It might not be too much of an overstatement to say that we are seeing something somewhat akin to the way that the airplane revolutionized travel post the railroad age. The technologies to accomplish some or all of what people have in mind when they discuss the concept of "Information Superhighway" are pretty much in hand. The major issues are now more in the "driver" and "financial" realm than in the technological implementation.

First of all, when we use the term, "Information Superhighway," what do we mean? Ask 10 people and you will get 10 different answers, but a common theme is that it is a means for sharing the tremendous information bank we have developed in our civilization in a manner which provides easy access for the entire population.

One key word here is "easy." There already exist ways of accessing much or all of civilization's data bank, but poking into the dark corners often requires more effort than people are willing to put forth. Another key word, or phrase, is "entire population." Many businesses and universities already have their own information superhighway which has its various cross connections to external data banks (e.g., Internet). It is "to the home" that we feel is the critical element in fulfilling the ultimate dream.

So, if we have to prepare a concise definition, it is this: the "Information Superhighway" is the concept by which the "average man" gets easy access to the tremendous bank of current and past information available in the annals of civilization and can enjoy that access for purposes of education, entertainment and communi- cation.

If we can at least "store" that concept as being partially satisfying, some subsidiary questions that come up are:

* What will be the delivery channel?

* Who will control the channel?

* What will be the "human to highway" interface mechanism?

* Who will pay for it all?

First of all, the perceived impact of the Information Superhighway on the delivery of information, communications and entertainment to the home has created what might be called the "war of the worlds." That is, major interests, both in the industrial community and the government are struggling to define their role in whatever the Information Superhighway might ultimately become.

Exhibit I shows a line-up of the interests as they seem to coalesce today. On the left, we have the conglomerate which includes the switched network interests--that is, the telephone companies--the PC manufacturers, including their dominant chip suppliers, and the multimedia interests. As evidence of that natural grouping, we read in the papers about a grand new alliance between AT&T and Intel to cooperate in the development of one aspect of the Information Superhighway.

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On the right we have the fixed network interests, that is, the people who own the cable television infrastructure, or have traditionally supplied boxes for it, the television manufacturers, and the terrestrial and satellite broadcast interests. There have been a number of alliances announced there.

The people on the left own a system which was optimized for totally flexible point-to-point switching for the delivery of relatively low bandwidth information; it would seem that they are jealous of the ability of the people on the right to download tremendous quantities of information to the home. The people on the right own a network which was optimized for one-way transmission under circumstances where the sender and the receiver are essentially hard-wired together; it would seem that they are jealous of the ability of the folks on the left to easily provide two-way communications, and to alter the structure of the network at will.

Sitting at the bottom of Exhibit I are the folks who aren't jealous of anyone except their own immediate competitors. They win--and probably make most of the money-- whether the Information Superhighway is more the province of the folks to the left or the folks to the right.

Because neither of the "natural alliances" has everything it takes to dominate the Information Superhighway, there is a continual formation of "virtual alliances" across the gap in the center. Whereas vertical alliances on the left or the right appear to be natural and trusting, one gets the impression that horizontal alliances between the left and the right are more in the nature of, "Let's talk so that I can better comprehend your next move and be sure that I have architected a well though-out parry." We even have the "mega deals" between the left and the right that fill our financial pages, most of which seem to dissolve before the ultimate nuptials.

Now, in addition to the problem of who will build, own, and dominate the Information Superhighway, there is the little element of who will pay for it. I have seen scholarly representations which say that the Superhighway will cost as little as $15 billion and maybe as much as $400 billion. I guess that when no one knows exactly what something is, a 26:1 range in cost estimates is probably quite to be expected. Whatever the number, the ultimate cost has to be depreciated and expensed over what are probably less than 100 million American households that will ultimately be connected to the network.