Next 50 years - 'brainy' software in works

Electronic News, March 10, 1997 by Cynthia Bournellis

San Jose, Calif.--What will the next 50 years of computing be like? That question and more was answered when a number of industry luminaries met last week at the ACM97 Expo in San Jose.

Carver Mead, who was an early pioneer in VLSI design, summed up his thoughts on what types of computer technologies will exist by the year 2047. "What if we could make a machine where the computational capabilities got bigger exponentially with the size of the machine? This would significantly change the game," said Mr. Mead, noting that ultra parallel VLSI technologies and neural computing structures are already under development.

Digital systems have also become the start of a range of computing paradigms. Mr. Mead added that 50 years from now, computers will be based on elements of the human nervous system and quantum computations. "We will have more ways to input things from the real world into cyberspace."

The next 50 years are expected to present a number of alternatives. According to Joel Birnbaum, director of Hewlett-Packard Laboratories, technologies will move toward electronic and non-electronic, and biological and optical computing. Quantum computing, DNA computing and optical computing will become three major processes. For instance, in the area of quantum computing, quantum dots will be used. Explained Mr. Birnbaum, "This process will be cost-effective and will be constructed by chemical assembly using quantum bits. We'll be able to use one circuit simultaneously to calculate more numbers. This method has a property that is ideal for searching news databases in a single pass, but retrieving information won't be simple." He said the vast majority of work in this area is still theoretical.

Moore's Law is expected to prevail, at least for the next 30 years, predicted Nathan Myhrvold, group VP of applications and content at Microsoft. However, Moore's Law will ultimately stunt the growth of software. "Software is eventually limited by hardware, but it does make Moore's Law possible, because software brings hardware to its knees right before the next version comes out," laughed Mr. Myhrvold.

He said one thing that will remain a constant over time is the software crises. However, future technologies will come along that will relieve software somewhat from its restrictive cell: genetic programming, or software husbandry, as Mr. Myhrvold calls it. In a nutshell, that means scanning the human brain into software. "The ultimate computer is the human brain...because the brain has no Moore's Law." His vision of the future of software will be in emulating the neurons of the brain in both software and hardware. "Within 15 years, we will have software that is as smart as my dog. If we develop software that is as smart as a baboon or a pig, then we will get computers that are almost as smart as we are."

Sounds great, right? Well, that depends on your perspective. But on a more current note, there are a number of new and palatable technologies currently under way from various companies and universities.

Probably one of the more fascinating demonstrations came from Boeing--the Wearable Computer. Currently a working prototype, the Wearable Computer is initially designed for airplane mechanics to use in the field. It stores information from airplane manuals and has an intuitive interface. Theoretically, it provides instant access to information, say, on a mainframe, and allows the mechanic's hands to be free to work.

"This device will become commonplace by the year 2006," said Jack Hyde of Boeing's Customer Training division. He said the device's compelling design should have no trouble attracting third parties to build the systems, which would be bundled with Boeing's Portable Maintenance AID Software. Visions of future devices include a wireless network and a sensing device so that the computer will be able to sense, for instance, which panel of the airplane the mechanic is looking at and then draw a picture of the layout behind the panel.

A computer system that lets physically or mentally disabled people type with their eyes was on display at LC Technologies, Inc.'s booth. The Fairfax, Va.-based LC's Eyegaze System is an automatic eyetracking tool for measuring, recording, playing back and analyzing what a person is doing with his or her eye. It uses a video camera to do this. A user operates the Eyegaze System by looking at rectangular keys displayed on the computer monitor. To "press" an Eyegaze key, the user looks at the key for a specified period of time. The gaze duration required to visually activate a key is typically a fraction of a second. An infrared LED, located at the center of the camera lens, illuminates the eye, produces a corneal reflection and causes the bright eye effect which enhances the camera's image of the pupil. The Eyegaze System is based on a 486 Intel processor and runs on various operating systems.

Virtual reality was one of the expo's main highlights. Virtual reality as we know it today is a technology that currently affects our sense of sight and sound. But when it comes to the sense of touch, that area has yet to be exploited and is an currently under development by Immersion Corp. of San Jose, Calif. Immersion makes a technology called Force Feedback. The company's I-Force application programming interface is an emerging standard, which is being embraced by peripherals makers and software developers to enable joysticks and other gaming interfaces to come alive with realistic "feeling" sensations.