SEMI notes upbeat April book-to-bill

Electronic News,  May 26, 1997  

Tags: industry, Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International

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Although last month's book-to-bill was down from March, April's total semiconductor equipment orders were up 9.2 percent to $1.42 billion. Bookings were 4 percent above the same month in 1996.

Total semiconductor equipment shipped by North American suppliers in April rose 13.6 percent above the March level to $1.25 billion, with shipments 7 percent below April, 1996 The front-end ratio was 1.06 on new orders, up 8 percent from March, but still down 3 percent from 1996 numbers. In test, the book-to-bill was 1.62 in the order department, well up by 16 percent from March and an even greater 20 percent year-over-year. In assembly equipment, the ratio was a flat 1.07 on bookings, up 152 percent over 1996.

"This is a perfect example of why it is important to look at the numbers behind the numbers when analyzing the book-to-bill report results," said Elizabeth Schumann, senior market analyst for SEMI. "Monthly shipments reported by North American semiconductor equipment suppliers grew at a faster rate than corresponding monthly orders, resulting in a lower book-to-bill ratio. Yet on a month-over-month basis, shipments and orders of semiconductor equipment were both higher in April than in March. So, while the book-to-bill is lower, the industry is in fact healthier."

The financial community saw indications of continued strength in the numbers as well. "Our April book-to-bill estimate was also 1.13; we were within 8 percent on both orders and shipments," said Gunnar T. Miller of PaineWebber. "Our front-end estimate was 1.14, which was supported by Applied Materials' FQ2's 1.13 book-to-bill (Applied represents roughly 35 percent of the SEMI front-end order statistics); however, we undershot shipments by 16 percent. Our May book-to-bill estimate is 1.08, but note that we expect an up 25 percent year-over-year comparison. The correlation coefficient between year-over-year equipment orders and year-over-year equipment group stock price changes is 0.72; we believe that continued improvement in year-over-year comparisons bodes well for continued strong stock price performance."

SEMI 1997 Book-To-Bill Ratio

Month               Shipments    Bookings    Book-to-Bill
Nov. 1996           1,062.3      951.5       0.90
Dec. 1996           1,069.2      1,078.2     1.01
Jan. 1997           1,034.2      1,116.2     1.08
Feb. 1997           1,028.9      1,100.9     1.07
Mar. '97 (rev.)     1,103.4      1,299.8     1.18
Apr. '97 (prelim.)  1,253.2      1,418.9     1.13

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