Challenge of technology transitions

Electronic News, June 16, 1997 by Mark Kirstein

1997 is shaping up to be a year of technology transition in the PC market. After 1996, a year with only limited technology upheavals, such activity is both a blessing and a curse. As 1997 moves into full speed, we are confronted by the transition from the Pentium processor to the Pentium with MMX and Pentium II. Modem speeds are making the move, albeit in fits and starts, from 28.8K to 56K modems. The graphics market is already well along the path in the transition from 2-D graphics to 3-D graphics, and will begin the move to the Accelerated Graphics Port in the second half of 1997. DVD is still positioned for widespread introductions before the end of the year. High-capacity floppy drives, chiefly Iomega's Zip drive, are still making significant strides to becoming standard equipment. And finally, the PC audio system is poised to make a move from the ISA bus to the PCI bus and to add a host of new features.

For systems manufacturers, such technology transitions result in uncertain demand fluctuations accompanied by the risk of inventory fluctuations. For chip suppliers, these transitions create both risk and opportunity.

As a baseline feature, the PC audio system has been overlooked for years. While the graphics market has been the recipient of broad and rapid innovation, the PC audio system has been neglected. All of this is about to change. As the audio system makes the jump from ISA to PCI, it is afforded access to a tremendous increase in bandwidth. This bandwidth boom translates into a host of new features and innovation. One new feature, wavetable synthesis, has really been around for several years. However, most traditional wavetable solutions were implemented in an extra synthesis chip and required a wavetable ROM to store sound samples. The latest PCI audio controller chips integrate the wavetable synthesis onto the audio controller chip. With access to PCI's bandwidth, sound samples can be stored in main memory and the wavetable ROM can be eliminated. The net result; less cost for the audio subsystem.

Perhaps the most significant new feature emerging in new audio chips is 3-D positional sound. With 3-D positional audio, the audio can be controlled in such a way that users perceive sounds coming from behind them or nearly anywhere else relative to their ears. Amazingly, this can be achieved with just two speakers, positioned in front of the user.

Other audio features are also in the works. A move to the new Audio Codec 97 (AC97) specification promises to bring CD-quality signal-to-noise ratios to the PC. Along with DVD will come Dolby AC3 audio. The AC3 audio standard supports 5.1 speakers (actually four speakers and a sub-woofer). With 3-D positional audio, the 5.1 speakers can be virtualized. In other words, the audio system can create the perception of five speakers, although there are physically only two. Special audio effects, such as reverb or concert hall effects, are also being incorporated into new audio solutions. Finally, we are seeing hints of chip solutions which integrate both audio and modem. Such a solution could make sense, as both audio and modem functions are most significant in the consumer PC market.

One major stumbling block along the way to PCI-based audio is legacy audio compatibility. PC audio developed in a DOS world, along with ISA interrupts and ISA DMA requests. Along the way, a large base of PC game developers incorporated hardware-specific (ISA-specific) code in their software. As a result, these games are married to SoundBlaster-compatible legacy audio. Supporting such hardware-specific code has turned out to be a tremendous challenge for new audio chips as they move to the ISA bus. However, support of the installed software base remains a baseline requirement for new audio solutions. Despite such challenges, PCI-based audio is here.

The long and short of it is that with the move of audio to the PCI bus, we are poised to see an explosion of innovation in the PC audio market. The new dynamics in the audio segment have already attracted new competitors to the audio chipset market. We expect new found innovation in the audio chip market will open up opportunities for new players to grab a position in the market, and for older players to gain or lose market share. We also expect that the overall audio chip market will benefit from this innovation with increased unit growth. We anticipate the audio chip market will exceed $1.6 billion by 2001, up from $634 million in 1996.

In-Stat's new Computer Semiconductor End-Use report, "PC Audio: A Market in Transition," is a comprehensive market analysis of the PC audio markets, technology and strategies. The 34-page report includes forecasts and segmentations for PC audio chips and competitive analysis of the manufacturers. For further information on this report, contact Dennis Ashton at 602 483-4471.

For more information, visit the In-Stat Web site at www.instat.com.