Supersized! China's economy booms

0 Comments | Current Events, Feb 11, 2005

SHANGHAI -- In China's largest and richest city, skyscrapers tower over busy streets lined with expensive stores and shopping malls. Neon lights glow 24 hours a day, illuminating the cars and buses that zip around the city.

The busy metropolis is a far cry from the Shanghai of a decade ago, when just a few skyscrapers dotted the skyline and bikes were the preferred mode of transportation. Today the city is home to one of the world's tallest hotels, Asia's largest shopping mall, and some of China's fanciest stores. Experts say Shanghai is the face of China's future--big, bustling, powerful, and rich.

By the year 2020, the U.S. National Intelligence Council predicts, China will be an economic powerhouse, vying with the United States for global supremacy. Mapping the Global Future, the council's most recent report on the status of the world, says China's economic growth, expanding military capabilities, and large population will guarantee its success.

"In the same way that commentators refer to the 1900s as the 'American Century,' the 21st century may be seen as the time when ... China ... comes into its own," the council wrote.

Under Construction

China is already on its way. It is now the third-largest producer of manufactured goods in the world, after the United States and Japan. China is also witnessing the biggest building boom in history. Last year, half of all concrete used in construction worldwide was poured in China.

Scaffolding and cranes are omnipresent in Beijing, China's capital city, as it prepares to host the 2008 Olympic Games. On one building site, at least 18 towers are under construction.

Thousands of citizens from rural China are flooding the cities on the country's eastern coast, pushing the demand for housing through the roof. Experts say the current migration is just the start.

"In the next 25 years, 345 million people are going to move from the rural areas into the city areas," Guy Hollis, an international realty agent, told BBC News.

A New Road

Such explosive growth did not seem possible under Mao Zedong, who founded the People's Republic of China in 1949. Under Mao's rule, the government controlled all property, and all products from Western capitalist nations were banned.

In 1977, Deng Xiaoping took power. He eased China's laws so that people could control their own businesses. Jiang Zemin, Deng's successor, and Hu Jintao, the current leader, increased individual rights even further.

For Chen Jiashu, a slight man from Wenzhou, China, the change has been drastic. In 1977, Chen and his friends started their own badge-making business--a move that would have put them at risk for torture just years earlier. (See Time Trip.) "After a week, we had orders worth $1,000, and we were terrified," Chen recalled. "We couldn't believe how easy it was to make money." Today, Chen supplies badges to the United Nations and the New York City Police Department.

Money maker

Chen isn't the only one in China with international customers. In 2002, China surpassed the United States as the world's leading destination for foreign funds.

Experts say the more money China makes, the more resources it can put into its military. The combination of a strong economy and a powerful military would almost guarantee China superpower status.

"It's important to remember that American military might is built on the superiority of the U.S. economy," warned Gary Milhollin of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control. "The day when China has more money than anyone, it'll have a better defense than anyone."

Roadblocks

China's economic growth has not reached all of its citizens, especially in rural areas. About 160 million of the country's 1.3 billion people live on less than a dollar a day.

That poverty has prompted rural inhabitants to head for the cities paying jobs. The shift in demographics has taken a toll; cities and factories are slowly engulfing China's farmland. Once almost self-sufficient, the country now imports huge amounts of grain and oil.

Pollution is another disadvantage of the country's economic growth. China is home to 16 of the 20 most polluted cities in the world, according to the World Bank.

The Grass Is Greener

Despite environmental and other obstacles, most Chinese are optimistic that China will fulfill its superpower destiny.

"Everything is possible these days," said David Zhang, a student. "I used to want to move to the U.S. and have a beautiful house with green grass in front of it. But now I think this kind of thing can he achieved in China."

Get Talking

Tell students that experts predict China will be vying with the United States for superpower status by 2020. Ask students: What is a superpower? What qualities must a country possess to become a superpower?

Notes Behind the News

According to the U.S. National Intelligence Council, China isn't the only country likely to emerge as a major global player by 2020--experts say India will also have a bigger role in global affairs.

Experts gave several factors for India's predicted rise: high sustained economic growth; expanding military capabilities; active promotion of technology; and a large population India has the second highest population in the world, with a little more than 1 billion people.