The best and the rest: despite rules changes and the possibility of complacency, Ferrari should again dominate F1 - 2003 season preview: Formula One

Auto Racing Digest, April-May, 2003 by Dan Knutson

EVEN BEFORE FERRARI COMpleted its domination of the 2002 Formula One season, a team insider revealed something that should worry the rest of the series. According to him, the jump in performance between the 2002 and 2003 Ferraris is greater than the one between the 2001 and 2002 cars.

Even if that's not the case, ifs likely that Michael Schumacher will win his sixth Drivers Championship. In 2002, Schumacher and Ferrari enjoyed a record-breaking season. Schumacher won an F1-record 11 races and his teammate, Rubens Barrichello, racked up four victories. The other 20 drivers in the lineup won a combined two races.

Schmnacher, however, expects to be challenged in 2003. "This season will be more difficult," be says. "I think well be in the fight for titles and we'll win races, but maybe not as consistently. We don't need to be as dominant as long as we win."

Ferrari will win a lot of races this year. Continuity is an important part of racing and Ferrari's "dream team" of technical staff, leaders, and Schumacher has been together for years. Even after 11 seasons, Schumacher remains motivated and focused on winning.

This year, Schumacher could have competition from his own teammate. 2002, Ferrari's blatant use' of orders led to a public outcry, most controversially in the Austrian Grand Prix when the team ordered Rubens Barrichello, who had dominated the race, to move over and let Schumacher win. The FIA, the sport's governing body, has banned team orders, but it remains to be seen if and how race officials will enforce the new law.

More rule changes are on the horizon. Ferrari's domination of the 2002 season--combined with other factors, including increasing costs, a decline in TV ratings, and the lack of overtaking--led to calls for an overhaul of the series. The teams, however, say they don't want any major changes to the technical rules until 2005 in order to have sufficient time to prepare.

Additional changes have been enacted, including a new qualifying format. In previous years, qualifying consisted of a one-hour session on Saturday afternoon with all the cars out on the track at one time or another. Now F1 has adopted qualifying with each driver getting one flying lap on Friday and another on Saturday. Changing track and weather conditions--as well as drivers being too conservative or making mistakes--will jumble the usual grid order and create more interesting races. Also, F1 will award points to the top eight finishers rather than only the top six, giving smaller teams a better chance to accumulate points.

Testing has always been an expensive part of F1. This year, teams that agree to do no more than 10 days of private testing during the season will be allowed two additional hours on the track on the Friday morning of each Grand Prix weekend. The fans should benefit from that new rule--it potentially doubles Friday's on-track action. Teams will also be allowed to run additional drivers in the Friday morning session. Minardi owner Paul Stoddart plans to allow an American to test an F1 car during the U.S. Grand Prix weekend.

Even with those changes, the other two big teams--West McLaren Mercedes and Williams BMW--admit they have to make massive strides to close the gap between themselves and Ferrari. "We need to take a quantum leap," says McLaren director Ron Dennis. "We can't just fine tune and expect to catch Ferrari."

Juan Pablo Montoya, who finished third in points in 2002, is back with Williams for a third season alongside Raft Schumacher, who is La his fifth season with the team. They should be more competitive this year--Williams and BMW worked hard over the offseason to create a better car--but there are, however, questions about whether either driver can maintain the season-long intensity and competitive edge necessary to mount a true championship challenge.

McLaren also has a strong lineup. Inconsistent but experienced David Coulthard returns to the team for an eighth season, joining the phenomenal Kimi Raikkonen. In only his third year in F1, it will be a surprise if Raikkonen doesn't earn his first victory.

After revamping the structure of its technical staff, McLaren should be stronger in 2003. Ferrari technical director Ross Brawn believes McLaren will be Ferrari's main challenger this year. McLaren will start the season with a highly modified version of its 2002 car to give the more time to develop its 2003 ride.

While the driver lineups of the top three teams remain unchanged, there has been considerable reshuffling among the other teams. Jarno Trulli is back with Mild Seven Renault for a second season. He is joined by Fernando Alonso, who spent 2002 working as a test driver for the team. Alonso replaces Jenson Button, who signed a two-year deal with British American Racing. Button's new teammate is Jacques Villeneuve, who has been with BAR since it formed in 1999, but is probably in his last year with the team.

In 2002, Honda supplied engines to both BAR and Jordan. This year, BAR is the exclusive Honda-backed factory team and Jordan is leasing Ford Cosworth engines. Giancarlo Fisichella remains with Jordan, but his 2002 teammate, Takuma Sato, left to work as a test driver for BAR.