2005 rookies: future stars in the making include third basemen Garrett Atkins of the Rockies and Dallas McPherson of the Angels

Baseball Digest, March-April, 2005 by George Vass

IT'S NO SECRET THAT THE PATHS OF glory and riches are less thorny for some rookies than for others, though it's equally true that nobody can promise even the most talented among them a rose garden.

A handful of lucky top prospects each year are virtually handed jobs--to lose, as the cliche goes--vacated by veterans through trades, free agency, retirement or dismissal. Other rookies, equally accomplished but less fortunate, confront a fierce struggle to secure even a toehold on a big league job.

Any number of examples from among the hundreds of hopefuls in 2005 would serve to illustrate this major difference between one youngster's chance to make good as contrasted with another's.

The Colorado Rockies are so confident of three rookie position players, third baseman Garrett Atkins, catcher J.D. Closser and shortstop Clint Barmes, that manager Clint Hurdle already has practically penciled them in on the Opening Day lineup card. There's also left-hander Jeff Francis, who seems a solid bet for the starting rotation.

All four prospects were impressive in minor league play and late season trials by the Rockies, with Atkins, who is slated to replace free-agent departee Vinny Castilla, producing the most spectacular showing in 2004.

Atkins, 24, a right-handed batter, led the minors in hitting at .366 for Class AAA Colorado Springs. He has batted over .300 in four of five minor league campaigns, and got steadily hotter as last season progressed. He hit .468 in 14 July games, .400 in August, and .455 in his last six games. He went 10-for-28 (.357) with the Rockies in a September call-up.

The Rockies are so sold on the defensive skills of Barmes and Closser that they're slated to replace two veterans, shortstop Royce Clayton and catcher Charles Johnson. Whether the newcomers can hit big league pitching remains to be seen.

Francis, 23, named Minor League Pitcher of the Year by Sports Weekly, went 16-3 between two stops (Class AA Tulsa and AAA Colorado Springs), then added 3-2 in a late season call-up with the Rockies for an over-all 19-5 in 2004. He struck out 196 and walked just 29 in 154.2 innings in the minors. He was 13-1 with a 1.08 ERA at Tulsa.

Francis's fantastic 2004 showing astonished Rockies farm director Bill Geivett, and confirmed his choice as a 2002 first-round pick out of the University of British Columbia. The pitcher was a modest 12-9 at High-A Visalia in 2003.

"All we were looking for him to do was to begin to face more advanced, more experienced hitters to see how he would progress against them, but we certainly didn't think he would dominate the way he did (in 2004)," admitted Geivett.

Fortune is obviously smiling on the four Rockies rookies, but seems to be teasing the equally worthy top prospect of the Philadelphia Phillies, first baseman Ryan Howard, who put on the outstanding minor league power display of 2004..

What Howard, 24, a left-handed slugger, accomplished last year was to lead the minor leagues in home runs with 46, and finish second with 131 RBI while batting .291 between two stops, AA Reading and AAA Scranton/Wilkes Barre.

Ryan was chosen the AA Eastern League's Most Valuable Player after topping the league with 102 RBI even though he graduated to AAA on July 30. For that matter, he reached the over-all total of 131 RBI by September 1, when he was summoned to the Phillies, for whom he went 11-for-39 (.282) in 19 games, with two home runs and five RBI.

What's more, Howard's devotion to his profession and dedication to improving his skills are exemplary.

"He's an absolute perfectionist, and his work ethic is off the charts," praised Phillies farm director Mike Arbuckle. "He really will not allow himself to be mediocre at anything."

Not bad, one might say. Such an attitude combined with a "monster" season would seem to assure a rookie first baseman serious consideration for the regular job on his major league team. All the more if he is an acceptable fielder like Howard.

Unfortunately for Howard, if not for the Phillies, first base is occupied by veteran star Jim Thome, who habitually hits 40 or 50 homers a year, and needs no longer to prove--as Howard would have to--that he can consistently torture big league pitchers after doing so for more than a dozen seasons. He may remain at his post until 2008.

Howard's dilemma is an old story, of course, that of lack of specific opportunity that frequently stymies even the most highly-regarded rookies.

Consider what it was like to have been a center field prospect while New York Yankees Joe DiMaggio and Mickey Mantle were on the job from 1936 into the mid-1960s--exempting World War II service by Joltin' Joe. Or a hopeful shortstop when the Chicago White Sox successively fielded Luke Appling, Chico Carrasquel and Luis Aparicio from 1930 through 1964. Appling and Aparicio are in the Hall of Fame, of course, and Carrasquel was no slouch.

Yet, in those days as well as now, the trading away between seasons or during them of established teammates often created openings for highly-regarded rookies. One of 2004's top newcomers, David DeJesus, got the chance to make good only after the Kansas City Royals dealt star center fielder Carlos Beltran to the Houston Astros, whom he almost sparked to a National League pennant.