Crucial questions face many contenders as 2002 season unfolds - Warm Up Tosses

Baseball Digest, May, 2002 by John Kuenster

A CLASSIC BLACK AND WHITE PHOTO TAKEN BEFORE THE START OF THE 1949 season depicted the inimitable Casey Stengel looking wide-eyed upon a back-lighted baseball as though he were gazing at a crystal ball.

The photo caption suggested Stengel was trying to peer into the future to learn what the Yankees would do in his first year as their manager.

Well, the Yankees won the American League pennant in 1949, and four more in a row after that initial season under Stengel's leadership.

When the creative photographer snapped the picture, Casey, of course, had no way of knowing for sure such splendid accomplishments were ahead of him. He was well acquainted with defeat, having managed some woeful National League teams in Brooklyn and Boston in the 1930s and early 1940s.

He did know, however, that crystal balls or attentive members of the media or assorted other geniuses can seldom foretell with any degree of certainty what will happen in a baseball season.

Yet, with every spring there hovers over the heads of fans and card-carrying writers the temptation to speculate as to what will or won't transpire during the six-month race to the World Series.

In succumbing to that temptation once again, I'll ask you to join me in looking at pivotal questions that face contenders in the American and National League pennant marathons in an effort to get at least some idea of what to expect this season.

Let's start with the Diamondbacks and Yankees who battled each other in last year's seven-game World Series.

Four key questions confront the Diamondbacks: (1) Will age catch up with them? (2) Will veteran starters Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling perform with the same deadly efficiency as they did last year when they won 43 games between them while pitching 249 and 256 innings respectively? (3) Will young reliever Byung-Hyun Kim be able to keep memories of his two disastrous World Series appearances against the Yankees from affecting his work this season? And (4), Will Danny Bautista meet expectations in filling the void left by departing right fielder Reggie Sanders?

Potentially, the most troublesome of these questions for manager Bob Brenly could be No. 1.

Will Age Catch Up With Diamondbacks?

Just take a look at the ages of first baseman Mark Grace, 37; third baseman Matt Williams, 36; left fielder Luis Gonzalez, 34; center fielder Steve Finley, 37; catcher Damian Miller, 32; other infielders Jay Bell, 36, and Tony Womack, 32, and pitchers Johnson, 37, and Schilling, 34.

How well will this "Over-the-Hill Bunch" stand up late in the season?

Although the Yankees remain favorites in the American League East, manager Joe Torre may find himself hard-pressed to get the club back to the World Series.

Torre won't have to worry too much about the production of such newcomers as first baseman Jason Giambi and third baseman Robin Ventura who make up for the loss of Tino Martinez and Scott Brosius

But, who will replace the intensity of retired right fielder Paul O'Neill?

What might give more concern to Torre as the season moves along are questions about his pitching staff. For example: Is Cy Young Award winner Roger Clemens, who didn't complete a single game in 33 starts last year, nearing the end of his long-standing dominance as he approaches age 40?

Any decline in his command on the mound will be a serious blow to Yankee hopes.

Two other questions might be asked about Torre's pitching staff.

Will Steve Karsay strengthen Yanks' bullpen?

Will Steve Karsay, acquired as a free agent, be an effective right-handed reliever, joining left-hander Mike Stanton in setting up games for closer Mariano Rivera? Karsay will be filling a hole that was created and never adequately filled after Jeff Nelson left the Yankees for Seattle before last season.

Also, will success await the return of right-handed starter David Wells who appeared in only 16 games for the White Sox in 2001 before undergoing back surgery?

If Wells regains his form (he won 20 games for the Blue Jays in 2000), questions about the class of the Yankee staff will diminish sharply as long as starters Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte pitch in their usual resourceful ways.

The two crucial questions involving the Yankees' archrivals in the A.L. East focus on Red Sox starter Pedro Martinez and shortstop Nomar Garciaparra, both sidelined last season with injuries. Will they be healthy all the way this year?

The Giants might overtake the Diamondbacks in the N.L. West if Barry Bonds comes anywhere close to doing what he did in 2001. The chief question is: Will he? He's still hungry for a World Series ring, so don't say he won't.

The White Sox, who figure to be a strong contender in the A.L. Central, will have their biggest question answered with a comeback by Frank Thomas who suffered a painful, right arm triceps tear that ended his season after only 20 games last year.

Will White Sox pitchers remain healthy?

Other Sox questions concern the rehab of starter Jim Parque who injured his arm last season; the contribution of right-handed pitcher Todd Richie, acquired from the Pirates, and a continuation of the impressive work by young left-hander Mark Buehrle who won 16 games in 2001.