Players at career crossroads: ten players who are on the mend to return to all-star status

Baseball Digest, May, 2004 by Bob Kuenster

AS THE 2004 BASEBALL SEASON unfolds, there will be watchful eyes on ten major leaguers whose careers have reached the cross-roads and are at the point of either continuing a downward fall into baseball mediocrity or returning to their former productive status.

During their careers, most players reach a point in which their capabilities are at a standstill as they seek to re-enter the ranks of the majors' elite performers or they are simply battling for survival.

In Cincinnati, the Ken Griffey, Jr. watch is now on a three-year rerun. Before coming to the Reds prior to the 2000 campaign, Griffey was heralded as the game's best player and was coming off another productive year in Seattle where he led the American League with 48 homers while driving in 134 runs, scoring 123 and batting .285 while capturing his 10th consecutive Gold Glove award.

In 2000, Reds fans got a taste of what they hoped to see from Griffey over the length of an eight-year contract he signed with Cincinnati when he clubbed 40 homers with 118 RBI and a .271 BA. But injuries and inconsistent production came into play to tone down these premature hopes.

From 1998 through 2000, Griffey averaged 48 homers, 114 runs, 133 RBI and a .281 batting mark per year. Over the last three seasons, he totaled 43 home runs, 108 runs scored, 114 RBI and a .271 BA.

That was quite a drop in production from one once looked upon as the most likely challenger to Hank Aaron's career home run record.

Over the last three seasons, Griffey's injuries have included a torn left hamstring, torn patellar tendon in his right knee, torn right hamstring, sore left hip, sore left quadriceps muscle, a separated right shoulder that required surgery and a torn tendon in his right ankle.

At 34, Griffey is no longer in the prime years of his career and with 481 home runs going into the '04 campaign, he's likely to reach the coveted 500 plateau, but how many more after that will be determined on how consistently he can perform and avoid further injuries.

"I think if he stays healthy, he could return as one of the game's best players," said Angels outfielder Garret Anderson. "But he's been hurt and he hasn't had the chance to stay in the lineup and put up numbers. It's not a question of whether he can be productive, but it's a matter of if he can stay healthy."

With his popularity on the decline while being mentioned in numerous trade rumors, Griffey is the most recognized name among those players who are at career crossroads.

"There's no doubt in my mind I can come back and put up the numbers I did a few years ago," Griffey said before the season started. "I'm in good shape and ready to just go out and play. My focus is to be in the lineup everyday and we'll take things from there. When I get my at-bats, everything else will follow."

Griffey is no longer the dominant player he once was and the sunset years of his career are settling in. But there have been players who prospered in the later years of their careers:

Hank Aaron: The all-time home run king clubbed 245 home runs after age 34. If Griffey could match that, his HR total would reach 726.

Barry Bonds: The active home run leader is one of the few players who have actually become better with age, Bonds entered the 2004 season having hit 334 home runs from age 22 through age 33 and 324 homers from age 34 to 39. If Griffey could produce in the same fashion as Bonds, he would have 805 homers before his 40th birthday.

Ted Williams: The Splendid Splinter won batting titles at age 39 and 40 and clubbed 29 home runs in his final season at age 42.

There have also been stars like Griffey who entered the major leagues at an early age with their productive years being washed up by the time they reached their early 30s.

Jimmie Foxx: One of the greatest sluggers of all time, Foxx entered the majors at age 17, was a regular by age 20 and had 500 career homers by age 32. From age 33 to his retirement in 1945 at 38 he totaled only 36 home runs.

Mickey Mantle: By age 32, the Yankee slugger had 454 homers and was well on his way to surpass 500, but his knees began to shut down and he hit only 82 home runs in his final four years to finish at 536.

Eddie Mathews: At 21, he led the majors with 47 home runs and had 477 lifetime homers by age 33, but he was finished as a productive player, hitting only 35 more home runs in the remaining three years of his career before retiring at 37.

So, which way will Griffey's career turn? The 2004 year may be an indication of what road he will follow.

"Nobody ever talks about Ken Griffey Jr. anymore," Bonds said at last year's All-Star game. "I just want him to stay healthy because his talent is unbelievable."

Juan Gonzalez was another slugger putting up Hall of Fame numbers at a young age before injuries curtailed his production in a rocky career. The two-time A.L. MVP put together five 40-homer seasons before age 30 and in his first 11 full seasons, averaged 115 RBI per year.

But recurring injuries have limited him to only 70 and 82 games respectively the last two years in which he totaled 32 home runs and 105 RBI.