Seven most improbable no-hitters: since 1901, there have been more than 200 hitless games in the major leagues with some being more unlikely than others - Statistical Data Included

Baseball Digest, August, 2002 by George Vass

WITH ALL DUE RESPECT FOR HIS exceptional feat, one word best describes right-hander Derek Lowe's 10.0 no-hitter for the Boston Red Sox over the Tampa Bay Devil Rays last April 27 at Fenway Park.

That word: Improbable.

After all, Lowe spent most of his five previous seasons with the Red Sox in the bullpen, the last three as the closer. He relieved in 276 of his first 298 major league appearances. Though he led the American League in saves with 42 in 2000, he was something of a bust in 2001 with a sad 5-10 record, only 24 saves and plenty of failures.

Lowe's no-hitter, the first of the 2002 season, helped heal his wounds from the previous campaign.

"I got booed off the field every time I went out there (in 2001)," Lowe told the Boston Globe after his no-hitter. "I didn't want to ever have that feeling again, when you get up in the game and people are saying, `Oh no, not this guy.'"

Devotees of obscure and inconsequential records duly noted that Lowe joined Dave Righetti and Dennis Eckersley as the only pitchers to have a no-hitter as well as a 40-save season. Yet, it's also worth pointing out that Lowe is a reliever turned starter while Righetti and Eckersley were starters who became relievers subsequent to their no-hit performances.

And what about Hoyt Wilhelm, the Hall of Fame knuckleball throwing bullpen ace? No, he didn't record a 40-save season before the statistic was devised by Jerome Holtzman, now Major League Baseball's official historian, but he did toss a no-hitter as a starting pitcher in mid-career.

That, too, might seem improbable, but then no-hitters are so in general.

Jim Bunning, currently a member of the U.S. Senate, may have put it best in discussing no-hitters, being eminently qualified to do so by having pitched one in each major league during an illustrious career.

"A no-hitter is a freaky thing," Bunning explained. "You can't plan it. It's not something you can try to do. It just happens. Everything has to come together all on the same day: good control, outstanding plays from your teammates, a whole lot of good fortune on your side and a lot of bad things for the other guys."

Simply put, in Bunning's opinion you have to be terribly lucky as well as exceptionally good to pitch a no-hitter. A pitcher can have the best "stuff" in the world but he also needs the "breaks" going his way in order to complete nine innings without allowing a hit.

A pitcher with dominating talent is frequently complimented as "capable of pitching a no-hitter on any given day he goes to the mound."

That was often said of such Hall of Famers as Bob Feller, Sandy Koufax and Nolan Ryan, and all three lived up to the statement. Ryan holds the major league record with seven, Koufax pitched four, and Feller rang up three.

On the other hand, none can deny Roger Clemens has demonstrated similar capability with an unprecedented six Cy Young Awards, six 20-game winning seasons as well as twice striking out a record 20 batters in a nine-inning game. Yet, Clemens entered his 19th major league season this year with the New York Yankees without a no-hitter--though with 280 wins going in he seems a cinch to reach 300 before his career ends.

He's in good company, nevertheless. Many others among the game's greatest, including Lefty Grove, Robin Roberts, Early Wynn, Red Ruffing, Whitey Ford, Dizzy Dean, Steve Carlton and Fergie Jenkins, also failed to pitch no-hitters. That didn't keep them out of the Hall of Fame.

On the other hand, the honor roll of no-hit pitchers posted in Cooperstown, though without accompanying Hall of Fame membership, is replete with journeymen otherwise mostly forgotten. Juan Nieves, Joe Cowley, Bill McCahan, Bob Keegan, Jack Kralick, George Culver and Bill Dietrich are just a few of the many nonentities who enjoyed a brilliant flash of supreme achievement in otherwise humdrum careers.

It all goes back to Bunning's assertion that a no-hitter is a freak. While nobody can set out to pitch one, most anyone can do so. And has.

More than a century of modern baseball (since 1901) has produced about 220 no-hitters. That's about one for every 1,600 games played. Thus, the odds against anyone pitching a no-hitter in any given game are enormous--1,600-1. (Of course, experience also suggests there'll be one no-hitter per 1,600 games, or two or three per major league season).

The long and short of it is that every no-hitter is improbable. Yet, to reshape a phrase from George Orwell, while every no-hitter is improbable, some are more improbable than others.

Don Larsen's perfect game for the Yankees against the Brooklyn Dodgers in Game 5 of the 1956 World Series most likely would top almost anyone's list as the most improbable of all no-hitters. If ever there was a pitcher whose middle name should have been "Mediocrity" (career record 81-91, with a 3-21 season a highlight) it was Larsen. As an observer noted, Larsen's feat shattered "all the laws of probability."

Larsen's achievement stands alone, of course, being possibly the most spectacular pitching performance of all as the only World Series no-hitter. It remains unique 46 years later and is a remarkable instance of fact outstripping fiction in a huge way.