Working the Count - baseball hitting

Baseball Digest, Sept, 2000 by Jim Armstrong

Once a batter gets two strikes on him, he becomes vulnerable and less aggressive, In those situations, his average at the plate invariably takes a steep dive

JUDGING FROM ALL THE SHATTERED records and broken windows out there, it's easier than ever to hit a home run in the major leagues. The hard part these days isn't so much going deep, but going deep in the count.

It seems, in baseball, bad things come to him who waits.

There's a reason they call it working the count, not playing the count. It's work in the truest sense of the word, complete with all the anxiety and insecurity of a skyscraper window washer. OK, so it's not life and death up there at the plate. But try telling that to some lost soul in the midst of a 1-for-27 slump.

Make no doubt, it's stressful in that batter's box, never more so than when you've just looked at strike two. It's been said since the outfield was a pasture and the bases were cow chips: The hardest thing to do in sports is hit a baseball. Not. The hardest thing to do in sports is hit a baseball with two strikes on you.

To a major league hitter, strike three is only slightly worse than strike two. At least, with strike three, you have some inner peace, some closure, some realization that things can only get better the next time around. Besides, in today's taxpayer-sponsored palaces in the sun, a strikeout victim can hit the clubhouse for a quick facial and manicure after the obligatory stop at the bat rack.

Two strikes? Now that's a different story altogether.

"Guys are afraid to hit with two strikes," said Hall of Famer Rod Carew, now the hitting coach for the Milwaukee Brewers. "That's why they don't work the count more. It's an insecurity thing. They might get that one pitch they can drive, and they're afraid they might not see it again in that at-bat. So they want to make sure they take advantage of it."

Said Atlanta Braves shortstop Walt Weiss: "It's not real comfortable hitting with two strikes. Guys don't like to get deep in the count because it takes away their aggressiveness if they get a strike or two on them. There are pros and cons. It helps your team when you work the count, but some guys like to hit the first strike."

That's understandable enough. According to the computer whizzes at Stats Inc., working the count can be hazardous to your career's health. Hitters clearly have a tougher time of it with each passing strike. Fact: Major league batters hit .338 last season on the first pitch, .192 with two strikes on them. They homered once every 24.1 at-bats on the first pitch, once every 49.6 at-bats on two-strike counts.

Some of the game's best hitters are some of the worst after going deep in the count. Take Mark McGwire. He hit .405 on the first pitch, .321 when ahead in the count, .194 when trailing in the count and .144 with two strikes on him. In 229 at-bats with two strikes, Big Mac struck out 141 times.

In other words, once the count reached strike two, the greatest power hitter in baseball history was reduced to an American League pitcher trying to make contact in an interleague game.

Even Tony Gwynn, the premier contact hitter of his generation, is leery of working the count. He swings now and asks questions later. According to Stats Inc., Gwynn averaged 3.15 pitches per plate appearance last season, one of the lowest figures in the major leagues. By comparison, Rockies shortstop Neifi Perez, who never met a first pitch he didn't like, averaged 3.18 pitches.

The obvious question: If Gwynn and McGwire don't want anything to do with working the count, why should the rank-and-file? Well, now that you asked, there are lots of reasons hitters should work the count. At the top of the list is this undeniable fact: If enough of them do it, their team usually wins.

Let us recount the ways that working the count can help a team win.

First, it forces the starting pitcher to throw a lot of pitches. That amounts to Russian roulette, given the cozy confines of today's ballparks, in which would-be flyballs all too often turn into cheap home runs. If the starter throws a lot of pitches, he's fatigued by the middle innings, leaving him more vulnerable than ever.

"If you've got a pitcher in the sixth inning with 100 pitches, as opposed to a Greg Maddux in the fourth with 20-some pitches, you've got him right where you want him," Rockies third-base coach Rich Donnelly said. "It's like boxing. You see a guy in the first and second rounds firing punches right and left. By the sixth round, he's out of bullets. In baseball, guys will come out throwing and throwing. But by the sixth inning, when they've thrown 120 pitches, they're going to get in trouble."

There are two benefits to be derived from knocking out the starter by the middle innings. First, it almost invariably leads to a procession of middle relievers, some of whom don't even belong in the big leagues. Second, once a team knocks around those middle relievers and builds a lead, it avoids the other club's closer, who usually only pitches when his team is ahead.