Sprint to the finish: picking the alpha teams and trends heading into the 2002 NCAA Tournament is made A to Z easy - Men's NCAA Tournament Preview

Basketball Digest, April, 2002 by Tom Kertes

WE COULD HAVE SPENT a dozen pages expounding on how unbeatably-brilliant Duke is, or how much the college game has suffered as "ready" pros forsake their diplomas and many preps are skipping the ivy-walled halls entirely. But in the spirit of this wider-open than usual wide-open NCAA Tournament (seeds No. 2 to No. 65, that is), our postseason guide steps you through 26 keys, stars, sleepers, and miscellaneous musings. In this most freestyle of all college seasons, A to Z is our style.

A is for ... ALL-IMPACT NCAA TOURNAMENT TEAM

PG: JASON WILLIAMS (Duke)--Unstoppable on his way to the hoop, impeccable from the perimeter, sometimes JW is only fabulous, but the best player on the nation's best team has been awesome, game-in and game-out. If he keeps it up--and why shouldn't he?--the Devs will be tough to exorcise. Next best: Dan Dickau (Gonzaga)

SG: ROGER MASON, JR. (Virginia)--Powerfully-large yet mercurially-mobile, this deliciously versatile 6'5" talent with all the moves and then some has bordered on the unguardable. And he accomplished all this while the team around him has regressed. Next best: Juan Dixon (Maryland)

C: CURTIS BORCHARDT (Stanford)--After Western Kentucky's Chris Marcus got injured, this still-developing seven-foot snoozer (only 6.4 ppg and 4.2 rpg last year) has become the nation's most legit life-size center (16.7 ppg on 58% shooting, 11.1 rpg, and 2.8 bpg). Next best: Erwin Dudley (Alabama)

PF: DREW GOODEN (Kansas)--This long-armed smoothie will attack you from more angles than a schizophrenic octopus. Next best: Udonis Haslem (Florida)

SF: LUKE WALTON (Arizona)--Comes with instincts by Dad, Bill, who should open a store called "Winners R Us." Next best: Caron Butler (Connecticut)

B is for ... BLEND, WINNING

Viva la difference. As opposed to the "there's always tomorrow" regular season, what factors come to the forefront during the no-margin-for-error March death march?

Experience and senior leadership: "Everyone's so nervous," Ohio State coach Jim O'Brien says. "If you have guys who've already been through the March ringer two or three times, it's invaluable."

Guard play: "They make most of the crucial decisions on the floor," Arizona coach Lute Olson says. "You can win an NCAA championship with a mediocre center or so-so forwards. But you'll never do it without top-notch guards."

Defense: "Even the best teams can come up cold shooting once or twice under that type of pressure," Pitt coach Ben Howland says. "But if you play man-eating "D," you still have a chance to win those games."

Coaching: Or the ability to make adjustments, "The first two weeks, you only have one day to prepare for that second game," O'Brien says. "A lot of coaches will just worry about their own team, but not me. I feel that, adjustment-wise, those games could give us the edge."

Not surprisingly, quirky Memphis coach John Calipari had the funkiest take: "What you want is a team with a lot of experience--or a bunch of kids so young that they have no idea what's going on," he said. "I know we don't have the former--so I hope we have the latter."

C is for ... CRUSHING INJURY OF THE YEAR

The first week of February, supertalented Memphis was 204, unranked, and feisty. "Some people saw us once very early in the season and now they say we stink," Calipari says. "That's like judging the entire summer by one rainy day in June. Those rankings are a joke. We have a very young team here. People don't understand, this is a matter of evolution over a course of a season. We are so much better now, it's not even funny."

Unfortunately, the laughter--and the Tigers' evolution toward greatness--stopped in its tracks when all-important 6'11" rebounding monster Kelly Wise was injured. In the next two games, winnable roadies at UAB and Charlotte, the Tigercubs looked clawless, remained boardless, and appeared entirely too vulnerable to tempo-teams that massage the clock.

So, to gauge the Tigers' NCAA chances, first look for Wise. Then look at the matchups: Slowdown ball could be slow death for this young club.

D is for ... THE DUDES OF COLLEGE BASKETBALL (DUKE)

Has Duke separated itself from the rest of the field? Despite being a pretty defensively-deficient team, it may have.

"They have four NBA lottery picks, led by two great point guards," Howland says. "They play with such a perfect strategy, such great purpose. And they're led by the best coach in the country. How are you going to beat them?"

"Pound it inside, get them into foul difficulties, take advantage of their lack of size and depth," O'Brien says. "If you can do that, they can be had."

But how many teams have the personnel to do that this year? Well, there's Maryland. And then there's ... nobody else. It seems it'll be a cold day in Hades before Duke loses in March.

Or a cold day from the three-point line--Duke still shoots too many treys.

E is for ... ERASE THE REGULAR SEASON

These one-time highly-regarded teams, shockingly up-and-down at times, had better regroup for March:

Illinois: Its brilliant backcourt has stagnated this season, and the frontcourt has regressed.