Crunch time - 2002 Postseason Preview

Football Digest, Feb, 2003

THE TAMPA, BAY BUCCANEERS were the NFL's hottest team heading into their Week 13 matchup against the New Orleans Saints, their pesky rivals in the NFC South. The Bucs had a league-best 9-2 record; a win would have put them in an outstanding position to capture the division title and, more importantly, secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Instead, they lost the game, 23-20, and the race to the finish line tightened yet again.

It's been that type of season. Every time a team has appeared ready to break away from the pack, it has gotten stopped in its tracks.

Consider:

* The Oakland Raiders started the season as the class of the league, winning their first four games and outscoring their opponents 162-90 in the process. But then they lost their next four games before embarking on another winning streak and putting themselves back into the postseason hunt.

* The New England Patriots won their first three games and looked to be even stronger than they were in their Super Bowl-winning 2001 season. Like the, Raiders, however, they faltered, losing their next four. And also like the Raiders, they overcame that slump and clawed their way back into contention.

* Seemingly in the blink of an eye, the Indianapolis Colts went from a robust 4-1 to a mediocre 4-4. But they, too, rebounded just when their season was about to slip away.

* The Miami Dolphins began the season 5-1 but then hit the skids with a three-game losing streak.

* The Denver Broncos were 6-2 before losing their footing in the topsy-turvy AFC West.

It has worked the other way, too:

* The Tennessee Titans went from 14 also-rans to postseason contenders.

* The Atlanta Falcons were 1-3 before Michael Vick put them on his shoulders and turned them into one of the season's most compelling Cinderella stories.

* The Pittsburgh Steelers entered the season as Super Bowl favorites, but they lost three of their first four games. Eventually, though, they righted their ship.

* The New York Jets were written off when they stumbled out of the gate at 1-4. But then the defense toughened up, Chad Pennington caught on at quarterback, and the Jets began winning games in bunches.

Before you start thinking the league has gone completely mad, we should point out that there have been some teams that haven't had split personalities. Clubs such as the Bucs, Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Saints, San Francisco 49ers, and San Diego Chargers have played at a relatively consistent clip. Of course, the way this season has turned out, that may not mean much once the playoffs begin.

With so much confusion, picking the teams to beat isn't easy. A good place to start, however, is Green Bay, where the Packers have the ultimate crunch-time weapon in quarterback Brett Favre. The Packers wrapped up a weak NFC North division by early December and began focusing on their postseason run.

The Buccaneers also are formidable. Although their offense hasn't improved as much as people thought it would under first-year coach Jon Gruden, their defense is downright scary.

And let's not forget about the Niners. Their offense is as good as any in football. If their defense can stiffen--particularly their secondary--they have a shot at going all the way.

The unknown in the NFC is Philadelphia. When franchise quarterback Donovan McNabb broke his ankle in November, a season with Super Bowl potential was in jeopardy. But thanks to a defense featuring the likes of Hugh Douglas, Bobby Taylor, and Brian Dawkins, the team soldiered on without its leader. Still, success in the postseason will require the playmaking McNabb. Unless he is healthy and at his best, the Eagles won't reach the Super Bowl.

The AFC, meanwhile, is a free-for-all. As we said, many of the main contenders have been brilliant one week and pitiful the next.

But come January, memories of the past four months will be washed away. When the NFL's second season begins, all 12 teams will be 0-0. And only one still will be undefeated following Super Bowl 37.

FOOTBALL DIGEST'S

Postseason Picks

AFC Championship Game

Oakland Raiders over Tennessee Titans

NFC Championship Game

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Green Bay Packers

Super Bowl 37

Oakland over Tampa Bay