The Carson show: USC quarterback Carson Palmer is the consensus No. 1 pick—but is he ready for prime time? - 2003 Draft Preview - Cover Story

Football Digest, June, 2003 by Joe Donatelli

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE certainty that is Mel Kiper's superbly sculpted coif, there are no sure things an the NFL draft. The closest you can get--over the past 20 years, at least--is selecting a Pac-10 quarterback with the No. 1 pick.

Three have been chosen: John Elway (Stanford, 1983), Troy Aikman (UCLA, 1989), and Drew Bledsoe (Washington State, 1993). Together they have appeared in nine Super Bowls and have captured five rings. Aikman and Elway are certain Hall-of-Famers, and Bledsoe appears to be on his way. Not one of the other six quarterbacks who went first in the draft during that span has appeared in the Super Bowl. It speaks well of the Pac-10.

However--and there is always a however when it comes to the NFL draft--the conference's talent pool at quarterback drains quickly after the Big Three. True, the conference produced Chris Miller (13th pick overall, Oregon, 1987), whose solid career was cut short by injuries; Tommy Maddox (25th, UCLA, 1992), who has been resurrected with the Pittsburgh Steelers; and Joey Harrington (third, Oregon, 2002), who is off to a promising start.

But the rest of the Pac-10 quarterbacks taken in the first round during the past years are a who's who of draft-day busts. Consider these names: Akili Smith (third, Oregon, 1999), Cade McNown (12th, UCLA, 1999), Ryan Leaf (second, Washington State, 1998), and Todd Marinovich (24th, USC, 1991).

The big question this year: Will projected No. 1 pick Carson Palmer of USC join the ranks of the Pac-10 damned, or will he turn the Big Three into the Big Four?

Talk to his coaches, opposing defensive coordinators, and one of the game's keenest talent evaluators and the answer becomes clear: Make room, Big Three, because Palmer's future looks brighter than the sheen on Kiper's' do.

Palmer's coaches and opponents agree: He's levelheaded. He's competitive. He's mature. In other words, he's not Ryan Leaf.

Gil Brandt has been evaluating college football players for five decades. As vice president of player personnel for the Dallas Cowboys from 1960 through 1989, he assembled a dynasty. He knows a future pro when he sees one, and Brandt has little doubt about the 2002 Heisman Trophy winner's ability to handle the responsibilities of the NFL on and off the field.

"He did the right thing by staying in school for an additional year. That decision will turn out to be monumental, moneywise, for him," says Brandt, now a writer with NFL.com. "Away from the football field, he has gained a lot of maturity. The fact that [USC head coach] Pete Carroll and [USC offensive coordinator] Norm Chow got another year with him was to his benefit. If only they could have played the Kansas State and Washington State games over this year, you know?"

Coaches say Palmer's strongest attribute is his poise. Bob Johnson--the father of Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Rob Johnson--has been Palmer's personal quarterback coach since Palmer was in the seventh grade. "He doesn't get carried away with himself," Johnson says. "He doesn't get too high or too low. He's on an even keel, which is where a quarterback ought to be. He's not too enamored of the five-touchdown games because he knows there will be a two-pick game in his future."

But that doesn't mean Palmer lacks Passion. "First and foremost, he does not like to lose," says USC quarterbacks coach Steve Sarkisian. "Even when he's trying to be the mellow guy, he isn't. He isn't a fiery, in-your-face type of guy. He wants his teammates upbeat, fast, and playing hard."

Palmer's physical skills are evident. Whichever team drafts him is going to get a "prototype" quarterback in every sense of the word. He is 6'4" and 222 pounds, he has a strong arm, he can pass accurately, and he has demonstrated the ability to run. In a league that asks its quarterbacks to do everything but drive the Madden Horse Trailer, Palmer is well equipped to succeed.

"The first thing is his accuracy and arm strength," Sarkisian says. "The word accuracy gets thrown out a lot with quarterbacks, but anyone can be accurate if they don't throw the ball hard. Carson can throw the 25-yard in-route and the skinny post. He's on the money, with real zip. And he can make those throws on the run, too. He can sprint out and hit the 18-yard comeback."

Sarkisian likens Palmer's pocket presence to that of Aikman and his ability to throw on the run to that of Brett Favre, minus all of Favre's behind-the back and through-the-legs gimmickry. "I hate to put that kind of pressure on him, comparing him to Super Bowl champions and MVPs, but those are the guys he reminds me of," Sarkisian says.

A basketball player in high school and a hoops junkie in the offseason, Palmer is no stranger to racing up and down the court Or the football field. Though he was not often called upon to run for the Trojans, he gained critical yards during the team's wins over Notre Dame and then Iowa in the Orange Bowl.

"He's athletic. He's fast He can keep the ball and run for a first down," Brandt says. "When the quarterback runs the ball like that, he becomes an additional threat. On third-and-three with nothing open, he can make something happen. He's a lot like Steve McNair in that respect."