Predicting success for actuarial students in undergraduate Mathematics courses

College Student Journal, March, 2005 by Richard Manning Smith, Phyllis A. Schumacher

A study of undergraduate actuarial graduates found that math SAT scores, verbal SAT scores, percentile rank in high school graduating class, and percentage score on a college mathematics placement exam had some relevance to forecasting the students' grade point averages in their major. For both males and females, percentile rank in high school class and math placement percentage were included in the best regression model. Verbal SAT score was significant for males and math SAT score was significant for females. For both males and females, a student's calculus average was found to be the single best predictor of a student's post-calculus grade point average. For males, high school percentile class rank is nearly as significant. The results are expected to improve the ability of teachers to advise prospective and beginning actuarial students as to their likelihood of success in this concentration.

Introduction

High school graduates who have strong ability and interest in mathematics may want to investigate possible careers that heavily involve mathematics. One such career that deserves serious consideration for these students, but that tends to be little known to the general public, is that of an actuary. An actuary is a person who is trained in evaluating the current financial implications of future events (www.soa.org). The actuarial field is one of the most lucrative and prestigious occupations that a student with an interest in using mathematics can pursue. In fact, it is currently ranked 2nd out of 250 occupations by the Jobs Rated Almanac taking into account six categories of job quality including job outlook, income level, and stress level (Jobs Rated Almanac, 2002).

Though an excellent field, it is not a career for everyone. In fact, the field is a reasonable choice for only a very small percentage of high school graduates. An actuary needs to have extensive knowledge of higher mathematics including calculus, statistics, and the mathematics of finance. Therefore, it is essential that an actuarial student have strong mathematics ability. The qualification of very high mathematics ability and interest greatly reduces the pool of students available for a potential career as an actuary.

High school graduates whose career goal is to become an actuary may choose to prepare for this field by majoring in actuarial mathematics as an undergraduate at an appropriate college. In our experience teaching students who selected this major at Bryant College, there are many students who enjoy mathematics and think they are good at it who turn out not to be good enough to succeed in actuarial mathematics courses. For example, though we make a strong effort to keep our freshmen actuarial students in the major, we always have a number of students leave the major even before the end of the first calculus course. Though there are many reasons why a student might leave the major, the primary reason is that the student is doing poorly on class tests in actuarial calculus courses. In addition, we have had students who achieve A grades in our business calculus course who then attempt our actuarial calculus courses (the usual three-semester calculus sequence for mathematics and science majors), and who have trouble even achieving passing grades.

Entering freshman business students are often undecided about their choice of a major. Those who enjoy mathematics may consider choosing the actuarial major from a choice that includes management, accounting, marketing, finance, or computer information systems. The mathematical requirements for majors other than an actuarial major are substantially lower than those for actuarial students. Therefore, there are many students who can succeed in these other majors, but who do not have the mathematical ability to succeed as an actuarial major. In addition, there are those prospective Bryant College freshmen who may not have a particular interest in business, but who are considering our actuarial major purely because of their interest in mathematics.

Because the mathematics courses in the actuarial major are so challenging, many of the entering students considering the major may solicit or at least welcome advice as to the likelihood that they would be successful as actuarial majors. Up to now, we, as members of the Mathematics Department, have been providing such advice, based on personal discussions with the student along with the teacher's intuitive interpretations of the student's Bryant mathematics placement test score, mathematics and verbal SAT scores, and the student's rank in his/her high school class.

In addition to entering freshmen, we want to focus on students already in the program who, after a year of calculus, become uncertain as to their desire to continue in the program. This uncertainty can arise for a number of reasons including obtaining poor grades in the calculus courses, or just getting more interested in pursuing another field. In any event, this is a point in the program where such students might benefit from faculty advice as to the extent of their likely success if they chose to continue with the program.