Shopping outlook

DSN Retailing Today,  Sept 26, 2005  

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A year ago, November ranked as the twentieth warmest and fifth wettest in 110 years of records. Really warm Novembers have historically been very disappointing retail-sales months as it was last year when same-store sales were the second worst in 20 years at just +1.7%. Cold weather in fall is the natural trigger that really spurs consumer demand for fall and winter apparel and other seasonal merchandise, so this November should bring much greater demand than a year ago. The last cold November was in 2000 and that year retail sales were a strong +4.0%; this year will be similarly cold.

Record energy prices will continue to weigh on consumers as they face both record-high gasoline prices and higher heating costs. This will certainly erode retail profits as heating costs for stores will be at record levels.

The all-important start to the holiday shopping season typically begins with Black Friday, the week of Nov. 20 to 26, which will get offto a cool to cold start with much drier weather nationally. Drier weather nationally bodes well for higher overall store traffic which benefits all retail outlets for the season.

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