Fashion forecast 2004 - apparel & accessories

DSN Retailing Today, March 8, 2004

NEW YORK -- As Target's presence at the tents in Bryant Park during the fall shows made it clear, mass and high-class fashion are more closely intertwined than ever.

Kmart also gained visibility at the shows via Nicholas Graham, the "chief underpants officer" of Joe Boxer, who gave an on-site presentation on branding. Even Wal-Mart had an association with the event--its U.S.-exclusive Rimmel line of nail polish with Lycra was handed out at the Zac Posen show.

So what will drive sales this fall? Overall, styles that are classic and wearable, meeting demand from conservative buyers for clothing that gives consumers the value of day-to-day wearability, season after season. That is the bottom line when planning fall assortments. Here are some more specifics on the trends for 4Q 2004.

Silhouette Outlook: Conservative is in.

Tailored men's wear looks still ruled the runways in women's for back-to-school season, but with a '40s twist this time around. While last year tailored jackets and jodhpurs seemed appropriate for a foxhunt, now jackets are cropped and boxy, while skirts are pegged and tailored. A key accessory to this look, especially on draped, feminine charmeuse dresses, was the vintage-inspired brooch. Expect retro designs to attract a lot of consumer attention come back-to-school season, especially stoles, capelets and cutaway jackets.

These dressed-up styles are sure to meet the needs of consumers looking for day-into-evening wear. In terms of casual apparel, heavy-gauge sweater cardigans and coordinating cold weather accessories were a popular choice. Fine-gauge sweaters, particularly intarsia knit pieces in classic crewneck shapes, also abounded at shows including Twinkle.

Men's wear leaned toward classic looks. Classic tweeds were prevalent in blazers and overcoats, at shows including Atil Kutoglu, Chereskin and Perry Ellis. Designer Maurice Malone sent a very wearable, fairly basic range of men's wear down the runway: "I try to provide subtle details in the clothing, but in the end, conservative fashions are still what customers and buyers want," Malone noted during a post-show interview with DSN Retailing Today.

While the classic bomber jacket looks to make a comeback in men's outerwear this fall, along with the casual blazer, leather and fur were cut sleekly in women's. Skintight is right in misses, while men's wear cuts are getting baggier across the board.

Color Palette Outlook: Neutrals abound

What stood out most during the fall shows was the absence of color, and alternately, a strong emphasis on neutrals. Black is still the new black, especially in leather, and was a core part of collections from almost every designer who showed their wares.

Rich shades of burnished chocolate brown, especially in distressed leather, were also heavily emphasized. Shades of gray--particularly charcoal--and winter white are also key colors for fall, interpreted in a broad array of fabrications, from Coco Chanel-inspired tweeds at Raika D to ethereal chiffons at Gustavo Arango and Tuleh. In dressier pieces, silver is the dominant metallic color, a light touch that contrasted nicely with all of the black satin at Luca Luca.

Some designers bucked the trend, like BCBG, where canary yellows, brilliant emeralds and purples made a rainbow of slinky dresses stand out, and bold tops popped against black suits. Bright colors were the most prevalent in dress wear, but in terms of everyday pieces, they were absent or secondary. In the minority of shows that featured doses of color, including Venexiana and Pamela Roland, emerald and kelly green, as well as royal shades of plum were used as accents here and there--in a scarf, belt or other accessory. Even in shows where color played a major part, such as Nicole Miller's peacock-themed extravaganza, the important shades of teal green and purple were secondary in importance to neutrals. There were still some tapestry items showing for fall, but there is definitely more of a monochromatic theme in terms of dressing consumers next season.

Fabrication Outlook: Tweed and fur reign

Fall 2004 is all about luxe fabrics, as well as contrasts. Last year's traditional tweeds still dominated runways, but are now shot through with glam Lurex or eyelash yarns, giving them a new twist. Satin, instead of being shown exclusively in wrap dresses or eveningwear, has been taken into men's wear silhouettes, including a line of suits at Pamela Roland. The trend of wearing daytime fabrics in after-work pieces, as well as showing traditional nighttime fabrications for day, continues into next fall.

In addition to these knits and wovens, fur and leather were everywhere for fall, much to the chagrin of PETA protesters who made an appearance during the Bill Blass show. Some designers stitched up faux versions, including Twinkle, but furry collars, cuffs and especially shawls and stoles were important. Mink and mink-look synthetics were the most common fur types presented at the show. Avant-garde celebrity favorite Zac Posen sent deerskin vests and accessories down the runway, spots and all, which brought Bambi to mind in his "Blixen" themed show. In keeping with the body-conscious cuts that make furs look modern, Posen also used Invista fur and leather with Lycra, to keep items true to form.