Aberdeen Group Is Bullish on IA-64

ENT, March 26, 2001 by Scott Bekker

Still have doubts that Intel and Microsoft will be big players in the 64-bit server arena after lagging behind their RISC/Unix brethren? Well, those doubts aren't shared by Gordon Haff at Aberdeen Group.

The research director for high-end architectures at Aberdeen released research last month that predicts huge market shares for the Wintel alliance in 64-bit computing by 2005.

Intel's 64-bit architecture will undergird 42 percent of worldwide server revenue by 2005, according to Haff.

The revenue estimates account for total system revenues, including 32-bit and 64-bit processors, server hardware, storage, I/O cards, operating systems, and other server software.

Haff estimates total revenue for the space at $57 billion by 2005, with systems built on Itanium holding $24 billion of the pot.

Microsoft has hinted that it won't have a 64-bit operating system ready when Intel pushes Itanium into production, but Haff predicts systems loaded with Windows will account for half of Itanium-based server revenue by 2005.

That would mean Windows would force Linux, HP-UX, AIX 5L, and other 64-bit Itanium capable operating systems into the background.

"We are looking at Windows to have the largest single market share among operating systems," Haff predicts. "We're forecasting that Itanium based Windows platforms will account for 70 percent of total Windows server revenue in 2005."

The remaining 30 percent would be 32-bit systems.

Aberdeen doesn't expect to see 64 bit Windows deployments to ramp up until Intel enters production with its second-generation 64-bit processor, McKinley, expected in 2002.

Even toward the end of his forecast period, Haff doesn't see the fundamental usages of the major operating systems changing much. Haff doesn't expect Windows to eat far into the back-end Unix stronghold, nor does he expect Linux to carry very far up the food chain into the Windows server areas.

The Windows dominance, according to Haff's analysis, will stem from servers traditionally associated with Windows being upgraded to 64-bit, not from Windows pushing into the back-end databases dominated by 64 bit Unix/RISC systems.

That's not to say there will be no progress. "They'll make gains there," Haff says. "It's a gradual process. People will need to develop confidence in Windows as a high-end operating system." Haff cites the Microsoft-Unisys alliance on 64-bit Windows running on the Unisys ES7000 32-processor systems as Microsoft's major beachhead into the back-end.

Linux, meanwhile, will remain primarily an Internet infrastructure play, Haff expects. "Linux has a long way to grow before people can even think about deploying it up for those high-end, back-end deployments," he says.

No matter what platforms rule, Haff believes 64-bit computing will be widespread, and soon.

"This is really a strategic development," Haff says. "It's easy to get involved in looking at a horse race. As with any new architecture, it will take off gradually and slowly accelerate. Ultimately it's very difficult to bet against the next generation type of architecture eventually becoming significant and even dominant."

The 64-Bit Question

In recent research, Aberdeen Group predicts that Intel and Microsoft will play significant roles in the 64-bit future. The following table includes Aberdeen's projections for total system (hardware and software) revenues for 32-bit and 64-bit systems by 2005.

Type                     2005 revenue  Percent of server market
Total servers            $57 billion   100
Itanium-based servers    $24 billion   42
Itanium/Windows servers  $12 billion   21
All Windows servers      $16 billion   28