What's Next for the World of Toys?

Selling to Kids, Feb 7, 2001

While layoffs and worries over the economic climate are some of the tough issues adults wrestle with, kids are usually oblivious. But they may feel the impact if an economic downturn begins affecting their playthings.

As 2001's American International Toy Fair prepares to get underway next week in New York, things have been "kind of calm" says Toy Manufacturers of America spokesperson Diane Cardinale. "I think it may be that buyers are going to be very cautious since a lot of retailers didn't have great holiday seasons," and, she adds, a lot of the projections for online sales didn't surface.

"Everything is soft right now and people are careful," says Woody Browne, principal for Building Q, a marketing consulting company specializing in licensing. "Everybody is pulling their horns in a little bit. Nothing's red hot. There are no Beanie Babies out there. Pokemon has peaked. Everyone's waiting for the next hot thing to happen."

Marianne Szymanski, founder of Toy Tips, thinks a guarded marketplace is just what the toy industry needs. "[It] will flush out a lot of the toys that aren't needed in the marketplace. When there's a high, there are so many rip- offs of the same thing.

"Parents have to go out and spend all this money on toys that are hyped - and it's all media-created. ...This might be a [year of] better purchases on toys. You might see a back to basics," she says.

Golden Oldies

Classics, in fact, are expected to be hot again. Be on the lookout for re-introductions of toy favorites, such as Transformers. "When you don't have new toys that are brand new ideas, [parents are going to buy] toys that they played with," says Szymanski.

Another classic favorite is that doggy named Scooby Doo. And he's not just a character; he's a fashion statement for tweens and teens, toy consultant Christopher Byrne points out. While Transformers and Scooby have high levels of adult recognition, re-introductions of other brands (such as Carebears and My Pet Monster) that weren't as popular could be risky, he adds.

Toy makers also like to put new twists on classics - like the rubber duckie. Commonwealth Toy & Novelty Co. is introducing Rubba Ducks, collectible rubber duckies with names like DuckTape and SittingDuck.

Some strong licensing properties are also familiar to parents. Publishing properties such as Eloise, Curious George and Madeline continue to do well. Also, several of this year's movie releases that are expected to have big tie-in sales have been around for decades in some form (i.e., "Planet of the Apes" and the first installment of the "Lord of the Rings" trilogy).

Techno Still on Top

If you want to know what other trends to look for in 2001's crop of new toys, once again turn to mom and dad. Kids' play patterns tend to mirror what they see happening in the adult world. And if parents are busy playing with Palm Pilots and other techno-gadgets, kids likely will be too.

Toy Fair will feature its TechnoPLAY pavilion for the second year in a row. Intel will be making its first appearance at Toy Fair, unveiling its new Digital Movie Creator, a $99 device that will record video and audio at and away from the PC. Intel Play will also be showing its other ventures in the toy world - QX3 Computer Microscope (introduced Nov. 99), the Me2Cam and the Computer Sound Morpher (both introduced last fall).

"Many people don't know these products exist," says Jeff Abbate, director of the Intel Smart Toy lab. "Even though Toy Fair tends to be about new stuff ... [this still is] new stuff. We are at the tip of the iceberg."

While techno toys are sure to be prevalent this year, toy makers need to remember to keep their gadgets kid-friendly, says Byrne. Sometimes, it's the simplest tech toys that win acclaim, such as robot dog Poochie.

DSI Toys will be introducing E-Brain at Toy Fair. The toy works like a PDA. But instead of kids having to go through complicated steps of downloading info off PCs, they can aim E-Brain at the computer screen to download calendars, games, funny noises and other components. The technology is the result of a licensing deal DSI struck with Timex, makers of the Data Link watch. The price tag? $29.

"[We will] keep the price point low," says Linda Kraus-D'Isa, spokesperson for DSI. "That seems to be the trend this year."

As for Intel Play's movie creator, Abbate realizes that $99 may seem high to the toy industry, but as a "PC peripheral, it makes sense... It costs more to make and you can sell it at a lower volume at a higher price point over a longer period of time over certain fad toys. It's an interesting challenge for the toy and PC industry."

Products aimed at tween girls are also expected to be big this year. There is this desire in the marketing community to find out just what tween girls are doing, Byrne says. "They have a lot of money to spend and a lot of influence on spending."

But look for tween girl products to be more lifestyle-oriented, he predicts. "We assume that they are into boys and that because they dress like Britney, they are already sexual. That's not always the case and they're not always thinking in terms of getting a boyfriend, per say," Byrne says. Often times, it's just they see clothing or a style as pretty or cool, he says.