DVD-RAM Won't Go Far Without CD-R

Emedia Professional, Dec, 1998 by Robert A. Starrett

If you just stop and think about it, whatever initial rush you get from having a DVD-RAM drive soon disappears. The truth is, DVD-RAM is no match for CD-R as a peripheral for the masses. Why not? Because DVD-RAM drives don't write CD-R.

Now, I'm a lawyer by training and I know such logic doesn't stand up to much scrutiny. If you managed to keep one eye open through Philosophy 101, you know it's called a syllogism. But that doesn't mean it's not true.

Why can't a modern data storage technology like DVD-RAM overtake a 10-year old format like CD-R that was a hack in the first place? Because everyone is using that hacked technology in one form or another. Anyone with a CD-ROM drive (read: everyone) can read CD-R and millions of users are writing it as well. According to John Freeman, president of storage market researcher Strategic Marketing Decisions Inc, 150 million CD-R discs were shipped in the second quarter of 1998. The number is expected to rise by 100 million units per quarter over the next two years and in 2001, CD-R media shipments are projected to reach two billion discs a year.

And as CD-R retains its hard-won popularity, representing many things to many people, it becomes less likely that the average computer user will step up to a DVD-RAM drive that is not CD-R write-enabled. According to a recent story on MSNBC, "With 650MB of storage, CD[-R] drives are a sensible [choice] for users who need to distribute multimedia files, back up their hard drives, or create music CDs." As far as we know, CD-R drives are the only way to create music CDs and if DVD-RAM drives cannot perform this feat also, then a large portion of the potential market for the technology is immediately conceded.

NO ROOM AT THE INN

Many current PCs have little room for peripheral expansion. The popular models from Hewlett-Packard, Dell, Gateway, Packard Bell, Compaq, and others usually have no more than two open 5.25inch drive bays, and many have only one. With bays at a premium, what device would you choose to fill that scarce remaining space? The popularity of IDE CD recorders shows that people appreciate the ease of installation and low cost that IDE drives afford. So when the time comes for the bay-strapped user to add a removable storage peripheral, what will they choose? CD-R/CD-RW, not DVD-RAM.

One could argue that the 650MB capacity of CD is too small for today's needs. For the network administrator, those needs are gigabytes of space for sever backup. For the multimedia and DVD developer, those needs are gigabytes of space for content. For almost all desktop users, those needs are minimal and CD has plenty of capacity to meet them.

What is the average user most likely to use a CD-R/RW drive for? Survey says: Backing up his or her hard drive. Despite the continuing paucity of backup programs for CD-R/RW, people still copy files to CD for backup and safekeeping. Some backup programs allow discs to be But most users need to copy or back up only their data files, which diminishes their capacity requirements even further.

What else is the average user likely to do with CD-R? Make audio CDs, of course. With the future of DVD-Audio as clear as the bottom of a muddy lake, it is unlikely that the audio CD format's grip on the audiophile masses will be usurped for many years to come. Installed base is the most important market factor in the continuing use and popularity of any computer technology. Five hundred million 3.5-inch floppy disk drive users can't be wrong, and likewise, the millions of CD-ROM users and the millions of folks who have CD audio players in their homes.

SNEAKERNET LIVES ON

What do you do when you need to transfer a file from one machine to another? If you're like the vast majority of consumer PC users, your answer is, "Put it on floppy." And what if the file is too big for floppy? "Put it on CD." And what if your file is too big for CD? Get yourself a network. You are not the average user.

One market where DVD-RAM may gain a foothold is in organizations that make use of jukeboxes to read and write large amounts of data with no expectation of audio capability. Here, DVD-ROM's low per-unit cost can really make a difference because jukebox capacity can be increased without changing the footprint of the box. But most of us do not have jukeboxes. So, for the average, non-networked computer user, DVD-RAM will not be a popular removable storage option.

WHAT DRIVES THE DESKTOP MARKET?

As an all-purpose desktop removable storage device, DVD-RAM could become the leading peripheral for all-purpose reading and writing. What other $700 device can honestly say it reads and writes DVD-RAM; reads DVD-ROM, CD-ROM, CD-Audio, CD-R, and CD-RW? But what else can (read: will) users expect? They'll demand that DVD-RAM manufacturers emulate CD's universal read/write compatibility and learn to write CD-R/RW.

If they don't, DVD-RAM will end up like MO: cursed with a small installed base, pricing that just won't drop, and little recognition by the user community. CD-R/RW, on the other hand, despite its pitiful 650MB capacity, will continue to grow and prosper.