China calling

Diesel Progress North American Edition, Dec, 2004 by Mike Osenga

I've never had a lot of patience for people that visit a country For a week or 10 days and come back as a Japan or China or German "expert." As every expat in this industry will tell you, live somewhere for a year, then you can start talking about "knowing" a country.

So after a little over a week in Shanghai at Bauma China, I by no means claim to "know" China. Judging China on Shanghai is like saying you know the U.S. after a week in New York. No.

But a week of-exhibiting at Bauma China left some indelible impressions. The first and Foremost being that short of war, catastrophic disease, a total change in government or organized worldwide trade resistance, there isn't any way this genie's going back in the bottle.

Conventional wisdom is that the 2008 Olympics and world's fair-type expo the same year will be China's coming out party.

But Chinese business and industrial machinery is cranked up now and by 2008, just as the world discovers China, it will be operating at Full speed. Bauma China 2006, which by all rights should become one of the world's major trade shows, will be a great measuring stick.

Two statements heard at the show ring true. In regard to engineering and product development: "good and getting better." The second is the most important: "take any timeline you have For China and tear it in half."

It is not unlike Japan circa 1968, but with a much Lister development cycle.

China is very close to producing engines, hydraulics, powertrains, controls, accessories et al, that can compete globally: Make that very, very close. There were reports, for example, of a Euro 3 compliant Chinese built diesel being ready For market early next year. Those that watch China closely are not surprised.

If your perception is that China won't have any North American class products until 2010 or so, you might want to refigure that.

There are still factors that could derail all that, but few of them are business related.

Bauma China 2004 was a little disappointing engine-wise. Two of China's major builders were well represented, but Cummins, MTU and Yanmar were among the only world players with a strong engine presence.

It was the powertrain and hydraulics area where the surprises came. Almost all of the world's major suppliers were present and there seemed to be Chinese gearbox, pump, motor or valve manufacturers in every aisle.

The show was busy to very busy and everyone we talked to was pleased with both quantity and quality. One visit to Lister Petter, for example, was delayed because people were waiting three deep in the aisles. Three deep.

No, I don't "know" China. But I can recognize enthusiasm, entrepreneurship and ambition.

And those three were well represented at Bauma China.

Mike Osenga

mosenga@dieselpub.com