Hybrid drive takes a big hit as fuel cells get a boost

Diesel Progress North American Edition, Feb, 2002 by Rob Wilson

The U.S. auto industry is frantically searching for the next new thing" to delight consumers in great numbers. The industry needs a minivan idea like in the early 1980s, or an SUV idea as in the 1990s. But right now it is dreadfully mired in retro schemes, video game inspired niche vehicles, crossover, SUV/coupe hybrids and sport wagons.

This is the impression that registered with me at the 2002 Detroit North American International Auto Show (NAIAS) last month. And while the quest may certainly be admirable, the result so far is the continued unraveling of macro markets into micro market segments.

Most people would agree that Subaru has been a niche market player here in the U.S. They've done a good job of it, too. But it is surprising to see every major car builder clambering to get Subaru-like vehicles into their showrooms. Are we on the verge of reinventing the station wagon, while calling it a utility sport wagon?

DaimlerChrysler unveiled the Pacifica at NAIAS and it is a good-looking vehicle sure enough. It may be all-wheel drive, but it is very much a station wagon, a segment abandoned by U.S. automakers 15 years ago. And the flight from wagon to SUV was led by vehicles like the jeep Wagoneer. Chrysler hit one out of the park with the minivan in the early 1980s. Ironically, Chrysler never did that well in the wagon market of yore. Pacifica hits showrooms in mid-2003.

So trends are not at all clear-cut when it comes to vehicle appearance. You have the Ford GT4O retro concept car on one side and the Volkswagen Magellan concept sport wagon (much like Pacifica) on the other. On the drivetrain side, however, the gasoline engine will retain its dominance in North America passenger cars. Not so much as a whisper of diesels this year at NAIAS.

For pickup trucks, the 6.0 L Ford Power Stroke diesel did debut in Ford's F-350 Tonka concept truck and the GM/Isuzu Duramax 6.6 L diesel was prominently displayed with GMC and Chevy trucks. And these are certainly significant new powerplants for North America customers. These diesel engines, of course, are strictly limited to the over 8500 lb. GVW truck and van market.

Without a disruption in oil supply or an unexpected increase in standards for Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE), there is no motivation for diesel power in smaller vehicles in the U.S. Certainly European car builders have that technology well in hand and, if needed, they would be the quickest to fill that need.

As US. auto builders look to the distant ffiture, it is the fuel cell and the evolution of the so-called "hydrogen" economy that has their eye. The hybrid drivetrain vehicles born of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV) and electric vehicles will likely be relegated to minor niche service such as meeting California mandates for zero-emissions vehicles. Toyota and Honda alone currently offer gas/electric hybrids in the U.S. and subsequent introductions are now much less certain.

At NAIAS, U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham announced plans for the federal government to replace the PNGV program with one called the FreedomCAR program. This program will pick up R&D costs for fostering fuel cell development. Funding levels will be announced later this year, but rumored to be on the order of $100 million annually.

GM'S hydrogen fuel cell concept vehicle, called AUTOnomy, debuted at the auto show. In this vehicle the propulsion and electrical systems are contained in a chassis module that looks like an outsized skateboard. It includes the fuel cell stack, batteries, telematics, heat pump , hydrogen storage tank, and electric drive motors for all four wheels. Various bodies would simply be docked to the chassis module.

GM'S thinking is perhaps three different power platforms could be used to power an entire range of light-duty vehicles. A drivable GM concept vehicle is expected within a year.

So that's the buzz for drivetrains, circa 2020. Hybrids are out, and fuel cells are in. Right now automakers need to pick a few horses to insure they make it to 2020. That leaves them right where they were last year, looking for that elusive "segment buster." That is still the Holy Grail.

STREET SMARTS IS A MONTHLY COLUMN DEVOTED TO THE ON-HIGHWAY ENGINE MARKET. ROB WILSON IS PRESIDENT OF DIESEL & GAS TURBINE PUBLICATIONS.