So you wanna buy a fuel cell? - Top Dead Center - Brief Article

Diesel Progress North American Edition, July, 2002

The question is becoming more and more frequent: "What do you think of those fuel cell things?"

First the answer, then the disclaimer.

Fuel cells look like they will play a role in the future of power. How much? When? Where? No answers. Lots of questions.

This is not said because our name is Diesel Progress. We have, are and will cover fuel cells and anything else that looks like a potential power source. It's what we do.

But we do hesitate when people start talking about replacing all the engines out there.

In the late 1970s gas turbines almost won Indy Deere put a gas turbine in a tractor, Mack had one in a truck, Chrysler in a car. The time was right for gas turbines and within a few short years we were all going to be driving them to work. Unless our personal helicopter was ready.

Five years ago it was microturbines. All electrical power would thus be generated using microturbines and many would be in vehicles. Okay then.

My questions about fuel cells and emerging technologies are more macro. How long does it take for a technology to become dominant? The two biggest emerging technologies of our lifetime -- the Internet and personal computers -- both took 2-plus years to become commonplace. The first 10 to 15 of those years were spent in quiet development and then in 5 to 10 years they went seriously to market. It only seemed like they "emerged" overnight.

Think of what it would take to put a fuel cell in everything using diesel, natural gas or gasoline engines today Engineering. Manufacturing. Distribution. Service. It's a massive undertaking.

Unlike computers and the Internet it's not an emerging technology; it's a replacement technology. And that's different.

It's not about diesels, turbines, fuel cells or hamsters in a cage, it's about what people want to buy And anything they want to buy cannot cost them money time or convenience. Screw up any one of the three and it's "No Sale."

There are alternatives. The low sulfur, clean diesel, Tier 3 technologies that are apparently out there, could extend the life of diesel engines, even in a social climate where combustion is literally under the microscope.

It takes an overwhelming and compelling need to make a change of this magnitude and I don't see it being there, right now.

The time to bet the ranch is when one or more of the majors makes a significant investment in the emerging technology du jour, not today's toe-in-the-water positioning.

The major automakers, the major engine manufacturers of today are not going say "oops we missed the boat, bye-bye to us.

While politics and regulations play a role, money talks. When one of the majors thinks they can make real money with fuel cells, then it will happen.

And not a dollar sooner.

Mike Osenga

mosenga@dieselpub.com